In a national poll conducted for RMF FM and Dziennik Gazeta Prawna, the governing party PiS would lead if elections were held next Sunday but would fall short of a majority in the Sejm, securing about 31.3 percent of the vote. The Civic Coalition would trail with roughly 24.7 percent, followed by the combined Poland 2050 and PSL at around 14.6 percent. The left would attract about 9.6 percent, while the Confederation would reach roughly 8.7 percent. These figures paint a picture of a tightly contested political landscape with a potential stalemate at the parliamentary level.
Participation appears to be uncertain. The polling group notes that only about half of respondents expect to cast a ballot, highlighting a sizable segment of eligible voters who remain undecided or apathetic as the election date approaches.
More than 40 percent of those surveyed said they do not plan to vote, and roughly 9 percent indicated they were still weighing their options. The data suggests a notable portion of voters were on the fence, which could shift depending on ongoing campaigns and last-minute developments.
As the survey unfolds, the headline result remains PiS in the lead with 31.3 percent of the vote, surpassing the Civic Coalition by nearly seven percentage points. The coalition of Poland 2050 and PSL sits in third place with about 14.6 percent, and the Left trails at around 9.6 percent. The Confederation sits just below the threshold with 8.7 percent, casting doubt on its ability to enter the Sejm in the event of an election held next Sunday. Sovereign Poland, running independently, would be polling around 1.2 percent, indicating it would likely miss the electoral threshold under standard rules.
There remains a significant share of respondents, nearly 9.9 percent, who are undecided about which formation to support. This uncertainty underscores how fluid the race could become in the final days before voters head to the polls.
Conversion of polls into seats
Analysts emphasize that the distribution of seats implied by the poll would deprive the current government of a clear majority in the Sejm. The assessment highlights how coalition dynamics could play a decisive role in any forthcoming legislature.
If the election math held, PiS might win approximately 211 seats in a hypothetical Sejm composition with the Confederacy also represented in the chamber, creating a broad anti-government bloc of around 248 seats capable of shaping policy. This interpretation reflects the method of translating vote shares into parliamentary seats, a process that often hinges on thresholds and regional results that can swing coalition-building efforts.
By comparison, the forecast would place KO around 177 seats, Poland 2050 roughly 72 seats, the Left about 40 seats, and the Confederation near 34 seats. These projections illustrate how even a narrow lead in national vote share does not automatically translate into an outright governing majority, underscoring the importance of regional voting patterns and alliance-building.
The latest polling was conducted on May 5 and 7 with a sample size of about 1,000 respondents, providing a snapshot of public opinion during the campaign period. The survey results have been reported by multiple outlets, contributing to a broader discussion about likely electoral outcomes and the potential shape of future governance.
As coverage continues, observers note the trend of the PiS lead at the national level while cautioning that shifts in voter intentions could alter seat allocations. The polarized landscape remains highly dynamic, with the margin of error and regional variations capable of producing different parliamentary coalitions depending on turnout and last-minute voter behavior.
Additional commentary from political analysts points to the narrowing of gaps between some party blocs and the persistence of meaningful support for smaller formations. The evolving poll data underscore the importance of turnout and undecided voters, whose choices may prove decisive on election day. These insights draw attention to how electoral dynamics unfold in a multi-party system where coalitions and strategic voting can redefine the balance of power in the Sejm.
Overall, the poll outlines a scenario in which PiS leads but not decisively, with the potential for various governing configurations depending on turnout, undecided voters, and the ability of parties to form stable coalitions after the vote. The field remains open, and voters are paying close attention to campaign messages, policy proposals, and ongoing political developments as the nation moves toward the election weekend.
In summary, the data suggests a competitive race with a clear frontrunner yet no guaranteed majority, inviting continued scrutiny of how the campaign will influence turnout and coalition dynamics in the weeks ahead.