Poll analysis shows PiS as having the most loyal electorate in Poland ahead of the election

A recent analysis of party preferences shows that PiS commands the most loyal base among voters, with about 85 percent of those who supported the party in 2019 saying they would vote for PiS again. In contrast, the same measure for the Civic Coalition (KO) stands at roughly 79 percent. The remainder of the 2019 PiS voters, about 15 percent, would either back other parties such as Konfederacja (1 percent) or remain uncertain (14 percent). These figures come from a poll analysis conducted for Radio ZET by IBRiS, covering late 2022 through early 2023.

On a Monday release, Radio ZET shared the findings of the IBRiS study, which surveyed voter intentions from November 2022 to January 2023. The project tracked how loyalty to major parties has evolved since the last parliamentary elections and what that could mean for the campaign landscape. The analysis emphasizes loyalty as a driving force behind voting behavior in the upcoming electoral contest.

PiS with the most loyal electorate

Across Poland’s party spectrum, PiS stands out for its strongly anchored base: 85 percent of respondents who voted for PiS in 2019 still plan to support the party. Within the same group, 15 percent indicated a different voting intention, with 1 percent leaning to Konfederacja and 14 percent expressing uncertainty. This high level of loyalty is attributed in part to the party’s ability to mobilize and retain its core supporters during the current political cycle.

Observers note that this loyalty translates into a significant factor shaping the election campaign. The persistence of a dedicated PiS base is seen as a stabilizing force for the party as it navigates competing messages from other factions. The study’s findings also foreground how shifts in loyalty could alter the balance of power as voters weigh competing visions for the country’s future.

Further discussion in the study highlights that this dynamic is not merely about past voting choices but also about which coalition partners or alternative platforms may attract disaffected PiS voters or those who are undecided. The implications for campaign strategy are clear: parties seek to convert loyalty into turnout, while also appealing to voters who may be open to change.

READ ALSO: OUR INTERVIEW. Which voters is PiS fighting for? Professor Maliszewski discusses unpublished studies and how they intersect with current polling dynamics.

KO loses to other parties

The Civic Coalition sits in second place, with about 79 percent of its 2019 voters indicating continued support. Yet KO loses a portion of its base to other opposition groups, totaling around 11 percent. Among those shifting away, 3 percent would support PSL-KP, 2 percent would back the New Left, and 1 percent would consider voting for Poland 2050. A portion of voters remains undecided, at about 4 percent.

The report underscores that the appearance of Szymon Hołownia’s new movement has affected opposition cohesion. The IBRiS analysis notes that only the opposition field and the Citizens’ Coalition experienced losses attributable to that emergence, while PiS’s core remained comparatively stable.

Poland 2050 appears as a potential recipient of 11 percent of former KO voters, with eight percent flowing to PSL and Kukiz’15, seven percent to the Left, and three percent to Confederation. In this segment, there were no PiS voters among those tracked in 2019 who now align with Poland 2050. The data hint at a broader reconfiguration of the center-left and centrist space as voters explore alternative platforms.

Among 2019 left-wing voters, about 67 percent continue to back their old party, while the rest scatter toward KO (21 percent), Poland 2050 (7 percent), and Konfederacja (2 percent). A small share, roughly 3 percent, stated no particular electoral preference. The shift indicates a notable realignment within the left and its relationship to other opposition forces.

Maintaining support for a longtime political partnership between the Polish Left and the PSL appears linked to the 2019 voter base. In that year, KP and PSL ran together, and about 68 percent of their voters expressed support for the coalition again, while 9 percent backed KO, 8 percent Poland 2050, 4 percent Confederation, 2 percent PiS, and 1 percent the Left. A portion, about 8 percent, remained undecided among KP/PSL voters.

In contrast, the Confederation is characterized by the lowest level of voter loyalty. About 57 percent of its 2019 voters would still back the alliance, 13 percent would switch to PSL-KP, 8 percent to KO, and 3 percent to Poland 2050. Among these voters, nearly one-fifth, about 19 percent, remain unsure about the direction of their vote, indicating a volatile segment that could influence the final outcome during the campaign.

The IBRiS analysis for Radio ZET is based on aggregated measurements of electoral preferences gathered from November and December 2022 and January 2023, comprising more than 9,000 interviews conducted via CATI, or telephone interviews, on representative national samples. This methodology provides a snapshot of voter intent across the country and adds depth to the understanding of loyalty and potential shifts ahead of the election cycle.

These findings illustrate the uneven distribution of loyalty among Poland’s major political blocs, with PiS enjoying the strongest base and other parties facing varying degrees of drift, reassignment, and uncertainty as voters reassess their options in the lead-up to the vote.