A CBOS poll reveals a split picture for Poland’s fall elections to the Sejm. Among respondents, 51 percent back the ruling coalition led by Law and Justice (PiS), while 26 percent foresee victory for opposition groups, and 23 percent see the outcome as uncertain. The takeaway is clear: predicting the Sejm’s result remains challenging for many voters, according to CBOS.
Across the entire adult population, PiS remains the preferred party for the Sejm race, signaling strong support among supporters and sympathizers as reflected in the committee’s commentary to PAP on Friday.
CBOS notes a contrasting dynamic for Senate elections, where predictions diverge. Roughly one third of respondents expect the current opposition to win in the fall Senate contests (34%), about the same share foresee PiS victory (33%), and another third are unsure about the Senate outcome (33%). This divergence underscores the different electoral dynamics between the Sejm and the Senate, as CBOS points out.
As CBOS emphasizes, belief in PiS and its coalition’s Sejm victory dominates across most demographic groups. The party is particularly favored by older voters, those with lower education levels, and residents of smaller towns and rural areas.
Strong confidence among PiS supporters
Among PiS voters, a striking 90 percent expect their party to win the Sejm race, with just 1 percent believing the opposition would prevail and 8 percent undecided. Among KO voters, 64 percent anticipate an opposition win, 17 percent foresee a PiS victory, and 19 percent have no opinion. Among Left and Confederates, the split is even on the surface, with 37 percent each predicting PiS or the opposition, and significant fractions undecided or unsure.
Looking ahead to 2050, voters are far more divided: 34 percent predict PiS triumph, while 60 percent expect the opposition to win, and 6 percent offer no opinion. Among the undecided, 34 percent foresee PiS victory and 31 percent the opposition, with 35 percent unsure. Among non-voters, 45 percent anticipate a PiS win, 21 percent expect the opposition, and 34 percent are undecided.
When evaluating coalition strategies, about one-third of respondents who think the opposition should run a unified slate still project PiS victory (33%), while 46 percent believe the opposition will triumph and 21 percent are uncertain. For those supporting multiple opposition blocs, 44 percent expect PiS to win and 42 percent foresee the opposition winning, with 14 percent undecided. Among supporters of a single-party start, 65 percent believe PiS will win, 18 percent disagree, and 17 percent do not clearly indicate a side.
Among those without a defined stance on the opposition’s starting formula, 47 percent still think the current ruling coalition will prevail; 12 percent foresee the opposition; and 41 percent have no opinion.
For Senate elections, CBOS reports that 82 percent of KO supporters expect the opposition to win, 5 percent see PiS victory, with 13 percent undecided. PiS voters largely anticipate their party’s Senate success (63%), while 9 percent doubt it, and 28 percent remain unsure. Left voters split with 22 percent predicting PiS victory, 41 percent expecting the opposition to win, and 37 percent undecided. Among Confederate voters, 22 percent foresee PiS victory, 46 percent see the opposition winning, and 32 percent have no opinion. Overall, 48 percent of respondents are undecided about the Senate outcome, with 36 percent predicting opposition success and 16 percent favoring PiS. Those who did not vote show 32 percent predicting PiS, 27 percent the opposition, and 41 percent undecided.
The CBOS survey was conducted March 6–16 this year on a representative sample of 993 adult residents of Poland. The data collection combined in-person, telephone, and online methods, with participants selected from the national PESEL database.
tkwl/PAP
READ ALSO: OUR RESEARCH. PiS records its best result since December, extending its advantage over KO to 11 points. Hołownia stopped the downtrend.
Source: wPolityce
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