Poll Shows Mixed Intent for October 15 Referendum in Poland
A CBOS survey reveals a mixed attitude toward the upcoming referendum. Forty-three percent of respondents say they plan to participate, while 31 percent have not yet decided, and 26 percent say they will not vote. Participation is expected among supporters of the ruling PiS party as well as Confederation voters and those who are undecided about their overall vote choice.
The findings indicate that interest in the referendum is widespread, but conviction varies. Approximately two out of every five respondents express definite intent to take part, signaling a broad if cautious engagement with the issue.
Nearly one in three Poles remains unsure about their voting decision, and a quarter have already ruled out participation in the referendum.
CBOS notes that among those who intend to vote, there is a tendency toward older age groups, with more than half of those aged over 65 planning to participate. The group is also characterized by a lower level of formal education, with many having completed secondary education or less, and a strong link to regular religious practices and right-leaning views.
In contrast, undecided respondents skew younger and less educated, with many aged 18 to 24 showing ambivalence. This group also includes a sizable share with centrist or nonpartisan political leanings, highlighting the volatility of this cohort as the referendum approaches.
Those who plan to abstain tend to be better educated and less likely to participate in religious practice, while left-leaning voters form a notable portion of this bloc. The CBOS survey highlights clear correlations between education level, religious attendance, and political orientation within the undecided and decided voter groups.
CBOS also explored how political preferences shape referendum participation. Among supporters of PiS, a substantial majority indicated they would definitely participate, with a smaller share undecided and a tiny fraction planning not to vote. Confederation supporters showed a more balanced stance, with a majority planning to vote but a meaningful minority undecided or determined not to participate.
For voters who had not yet chosen a party, more than half expressed an intention to take part in the referendum, while a smaller portion said they would not vote and many remained undecided. Among opposition supporters, the Civic Coalition and the Left show a tendency to skip the referendum, with a large share expressing that they definitely would not participate and a notable portion still undecided.
Supporters of the Third Way and related groupings display varied intentions, with a portion planning to participate and a similar share undecided, while a smaller segment indicated they would not participate. These patterns underscore the diverse positions across party lines and the influence of political alignment on referendum engagement.
A notable comparison arises when contrasting referendum participation with turnout in parliamentary elections. The proportion of Poles saying they will participate in the referendum is nearly half the level of those who intend to vote in Sejm and Senate elections. More Poles still do not know whether they will participate in the referendum than those who have formed an opinion about the parliamentary vote, reflecting uncertainty around this specific plebiscite.
Historically, voters often declare an intention to vote more frequently than they actually cast ballots, suggesting the eventual turnout for the referendum may be lower than stated intentions according to CBOS.
The Current Problems and Events survey used a mixed-method procedure on a representative sample of Polish adults drawn from the PESEL registry. The fieldwork was conducted from August 14 to 27, 2023, with 1,024 respondents. The sampling included various data collection modalities to capture a broad cross-section of opinions and behaviors.
Related coverage notes the ongoing political discourse surrounding the referendum and the broader implications for Polish civic life in the postwar era.
Source: CBOS survey data compiled for analysis by news outlets.