Recent survey data show that a large share of supporters for the leading political camps in Poland expect to cast ballots in a forthcoming referendum held alongside the parliamentary elections on October 15. The questions in this vote cover immigration, border security with Belarus, retirement age, and the sale of state assets. A notable portion of respondents expresses a firm intention to participate, while a substantial minority remains undecided or uninterested.
The survey reveals that about 45 percent of respondents intend to vote in the referendum. In contrast, roughly 44 percent say they will not participate, and about 11 percent have no clear opinion at the moment. These figures illustrate a polarized electorate where enthusiasm for the referendum activity varies considerably by political alignment and demographic factors.
Delving into party affiliations, the plan to participate in the vote is strongest among supporters of the governing bloc. Approximately 90 percent of this group indicate they will vote in the referendum. Among supporters of other major parties, participation intentions differ: roughly 80 percent of Confederation backers say they will vote, about 59 percent of Poland 2050 supporters plan to participate, and only around 24 percent of Civic Coalition supporters express a firm willingness to vote in the referendum. The data point to a clear partisan divide in engagement with the referendum questions, reflecting broader political dynamics and campaign messaging.
The results suggest that attempts reportedly mounted by some opposition voices and media to discourage turnout have not achieved their broader goals. The referendum is viewed as significant not only by those aligned with the ruling coalition but also by many voters across other political groups. This indicates a growing interest in the issues at stake and a belief among a wide array of voters that the referendum topics merit direct citizen input.
In summary, the research points to a strong turnout potential among United Right supporters, substantial responsiveness among Confederation voters, notable interest among Poland 2050 backers, and comparatively lower momentum within Civic Coalition circles. The findings underscore the importance of the referendum as a barometer of public sentiment on immigration policy, border controls, retirement norms, and national asset management, all of which are central to contemporary political debate in the country.
The study was conducted using a computer assisted web interview method from September 1 to 4, 2023. It employed a nationwide, representative online panel that reflects gender, age, and residential size variations across the population. A total of 1,049 individuals participated in the survey, providing a snapshot of current attitudes and intentions as the referendum date approached.
These insights offer a nuanced view of how different political camps perceive the referendum and how their members might influence turnout. While some groups show high readiness to participate, others remain cautious or uncertain, shaping the overall expectation for referendum attendance as elections near.
Note: The information above summarizes the results of a field survey conducted with a broad cross-section of the population and includes participants from multiple political persuasions and regions.