Almost half of respondents, 48.1 percent, intend to participate in the referendum set for October 15. A survey conducted by UCE Research for the Onet portal, whose results were published on a Monday, shows that 37.5 percent do not plan to take part. The study highlights that opposition voters are also showing willingness to participate, which adds to the challenge for those seeking to mobilize a turnout advantage.
Referendum turnout
The portal notes that the referendum is binding only if turnout reaches at least half of the eligible voters. The survey indicates that 48.1 percent plan to participate, with 26.5 percent answering yes and 21.6 percent leaning yes. In contrast, 37.5 percent do not intend to participate, with 15.3 percent leaning no and 22.2 percent firmly saying no. About 14.4 percent of respondents have not formed a view yet.
According to the results, younger voters are more likely to cast ballots, particularly those aged 25 to 44. Supporters of PiS show high willingness to participate, followed by PSL, Kukiz’15 and the Confederation. Voter enthusiasm among these groups signals a robust engagement around the referendum and the parliamentary elections that accompany it.
On the other hand, the segment least inclined to cast a ballot includes many voters aged 55 and older. A sizable share of supporters for the KO also indicated a desire to abstain, illustrating a clear split between demographic blocs and party alignments.
The report was published by Onet, which notes the interplay between the referendum and the forthcoming elections, underscoring the complexity of mobilizing a broad turnout on a single voting day.
October 15 will bring parliamentary elections in which Poles choose 460 deputies and 100 senators for a four-year term. Alongside the parliamentary vote, a four-question referendum will provide citizens with direct answers to key policy questions.
Four referendum questions
The first question asks whether the sale of state assets to foreign entities is desirable, a shift that could reduce national control over strategic sectors. In the recent survey, 19.8 percent answered yes, with 11.6 percent leaning yes and 8.2 percent certain yes. A strong 64.3 percent answered no, including 21.6 percent leaning no and 42.7 percent definite no. About 15.9 percent have not formed an opinion yet.
The second question concerns retirement age, specifically whether to maintain or raise it, including a return to the 67-year threshold for both men and women. In the survey, 21.9 percent said yes, with 11.1 percent leaning yes and 10.8 percent certain yes. The majority, 67.5 percent, opted no, including 20.4 percent leaning no and 47.1 percent definite no. Ten percent have yet to express an opinion.
For the third question, which covers the removal of the border barrier between Poland and Belarus, only 13.5 percent expressed support, with 6.6 percent leaning yes and 6.9 percent certain yes. A large majority, 73 percent, opposed the measure, including 19.2 percent leaning no and 53.8 percent definite no. About 13.5 percent have not formed an opinion yet.
The fourth question asks about admitting thousands of illegal migrants from the Middle East and Africa under a relocation mechanism introduced by the European Union. In the survey, 18.6 percent supported this option, with 11 percent leaning yes and 7.6 percent certain yes. A strong 69.4 percent opposed it, with 17.6 percent leaning no and 51.8 percent definite no. Around 12 percent have no opinion.
The CAWI based study was conducted on August 18, 2023 by UCE Research for the Onet.pl portal, using a representative sample of 1,025 adult Poles. The survey provides a snapshot of public sentiment on policy questions heading into the voting day.
READ MORE: The political landscape sees PiS raising concerns about opposition privatization plans for Orlen while supporters urge protecting national assets. Resistance and support are both visible as parties frame their messages for the election season.
kk/PAP
Source: wPolityce