In a scenario where parliamentary elections were held in the first half of April, polling would place the Civic Coalition (KO) at 35 percent, with PiS at 23 percent, the Confederation at 14 percent, the Third Way at 10 percent, and the left at 5 percent, according to a CBOS survey.
Overall, 83 percent of respondents said they would participate in the elections, the survey found.
The April telephone survey was conducted right after the campaign began and following the local government elections, at a moment when respondents were already aware of exit poll results and the actual election outcome.
– CBOS noted.
The study indicated that the Civic Coalition would win if elections were held in the first half of April, with 35 percent of respondents expressing willingness to vote for KO. The pollster also noted that KO’s support rose by six percentage points since the second half of March.
Second place would be Law and Justice, with 23 percent of respondents willing to vote for it, a one-point drop from the March survey among those intending to vote.
Konfederacja WiN would come in third, with 14 percent of voters indicating support, a one-point increase from the second half of March.
The Third Way maintained its level at 10 percent, with no change over the preceding two weeks, according to the data.
Support for the left stood at 5 percent, reflecting a three-point decline from the previous measurement.
In total, backing for the coalition rose by four percentage points after the local elections on October 15. At the same time, the gap between the leading party and the second-ranked party widened notably in April.
– CBOS noted.
Greater mobilization
The pollster highlighted that, as is common during election periods, greater mobilization and more decisive choices are often seen among voters who are still unsure who they will vote for.
The share of individuals expressing uncertainty decreased by six percentage points in two weeks, from 17 to 11 percent.
– CBOS emphasized.
CBOS concluded that the ruling coalition’s ratings likely benefited from appealing to some undecided voters.
The study, titled “Local government and European elections,” was conducted through computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) from April 8 to 11, 2024, with a sample of 1,000 adult residents of Poland.
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mly/PAP
Source: wPolityce