New polling snapshot for Poland’s parliamentary elections
A CBOS survey conducted in mid-February provides a snapshot of party support and voter turnout intent among a representative sample of Poland’s adult residents. The data suggests the Civic Coalition leading the field with 29 percent of planned votes, followed by Law and Justice at 22 percent, Third Way at 15 percent, Confederation of Freedom and Independence at 11 percent, and the Left at 7 percent. The study also notes a high stated willingness to participate in the elections, with eight in ten respondents saying they intend to vote, signaling robust engagement ahead of the vote. The results are presented in the context of a changing political landscape and reflect how voter preferences can shift as campaigns unfold. This particular poll covers attitudes from February 19 to 22, 2024, and was carried out using computer-assisted telephone interviewing methods, aimed at ensuring a representative cross-section of adults across the country. Attributions for the data point to CBOS as the polling authority, with the media outlet wPolityce providing coverage of the findings.
The Civic Coalition emerges as the most stable and widely supported option in the survey, maintaining a solid lead of 29 percent in planned votes, a figure that underscores the bloc’s broad appeal across a diverse electorate. Analysts view this result as a reflection of coalition parties’ ability to present a united front on key policies and to connect with voters seeking pragmatic governance, especially on issues like economy, security, and public services.
In second place, Law and Justice remains a formidable force in Polish politics, drawing 22 percent of planned votes. This represents a slight decrease of two percentage points compared with prior readings, suggesting a modest softening in support as the campaign progresses. Political observers note that the party’s traditional base could respond to perceptions of leadership and policy clarity, while opponents may push for alternatives aligned with reform and social priorities.
The Third Way appears to have strengthened its position in mid-February, with 15 percent of respondents indicating a vote intent. This marks an increase of four points, indicating growing resonance with voters looking for centrist, reform-oriented platforms that blend economic responsibility with social inclusion. The party’s performance in this period may reflect successful messaging on issue-specific opportunities, including modernization of public administration and investment-led growth.
Confederation of Freedom and Independence gathers 11 percent, while the Left secures 7 percent. These figures highlight the political spectrum’s fragmentation and the persistent appeal of niche or issue-focused platforms. Analysts warn that smaller parties can experience volatility as single-issue campaigns or charismatic candidates influence turnout.
Methodologically, the poll used computer-assisted telephone interviewing during a defined window in February 2024, aiming for a sample that mirrors Poland’s adult population. This approach helps minimize certain biases associated with traditional polling, though it does not fully eliminate challenges such as nonresponse or the influence of current events on voter sentiment. The reported percentages reflect respondents’ stated voting intentions rather than actual ballots, a distinction clerks and analysts consider when projecting final election outcomes.
For readers seeking broader context, this polling snapshot aligns with ongoing debates about how party coalitions translate into governance, how public support fluctuates with policy announcements, and how turnout dynamics interact with campaign messaging. It is important to remember that survey results are a moment-in-time readout, influenced by question framing, the sample’s demographic mix, and external events.
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Source: wPolityce
Note: Data originates from CBOS and reflects the political conversation in Poland during late February 2024. As campaigns move forward, researchers and observers will watch for changes in support levels, turnout intentions, and the emergence of new issue-based alignments among voters.