If the European Parliament elections were held today, the Citizens’ Coalition would lead with about 33.5 percent of the votes, followed by PiS at 29 percent and Derde Droga at 14 percent. This snapshot comes from a survey conducted by Opinie24 for More In Common Polska and reported on Friday by Rzeczpospolita. The timing matters: the European elections run across Europe from June 6 to June 9, while Poland’s vote is scheduled for Sunday, June 9.
The same Opinie24 poll for More In Common Polska shows a first choice breakdown in Poland as follows: Civic Coalition at 33.5 percent, PiS at 29 percent, Trzecia Droga at 14 percent, Nowa Lewica at 8.5 percent, and Konfederacja at 7.5 percent. The margin between parties is relatively tight, highlighting a political landscape where small shifts could influence the final result in several key constituencies.
Voter turnout
The research estimates turnout at 58.5 percent. Turnout figures like this carry significant weight because they interact with party support levels, potentially amplifying or diminishing the electoral impact of each group depending on who is more motivated to cast a ballot on election day.
Rzeczpospolita notes a pronounced split in attitudes toward the European Union within the electorate. On one side sit supporters of the current governing coalition, and on the other, voters aligned with PiS and the Confederation. This divide underscores a broader debate about how Poland should engage with the EU in areas ranging from budgetary policy to regulatory alignment and border security.
Among all voters, 57 percent say EU membership benefits Poland, 33 percent take a neutral stance, and 10 percent view membership unfavorably. However, the mood among PiS voters diverges from the national average. In the PiS camp, 39 percent see EU membership as a good thing, 41 percent feel it is neither good nor bad, and 20 percent view it negatively. Notably, more than half of PiS supporters—51 percent—believe that Poland would fare better outside the EU, a view that adds a layer of eurosceptic sentiment to the political mix.
These dynamics help explain why fewer PiS voters support further integration in Poland, with the party’s leadership and its allies signaling more cautious or skeptical positions toward deeper EU ties. Analysts emphasize that this evolution in sentiment is a gradual shift rather than a rapid realignment, indicating a complex political calculation among voters who weigh national sovereignty against economic and security arrangements tied to the Union.
Adam Traczyk, director of More In Common Polska, comments that the observed Eurosceptic tilt in the PiS electorate marks a notable change from previous years, even if it has not yet produced a polemical Polexit stance. The evolving stance among PiS supporters suggests an ongoing recalibration of how the party frames Poland’s role in Europe and how it negotiates policy with EU partners.
The Opinie24 for More In Common Polska survey was conducted from February 2 to 13, 2024, using CAWI and CATI methods on a sample of 2,027 respondents. This methodological note reminds readers that survey results reflect opinions captured at a specific moment in time and can shift with events and campaign messaging. The data provide a barometer of current attitudes toward the EU, the popularity of political blocs, and the level of political engagement among the Polish electorate during a period of heightened regional attention to European affairs.
Source reporting indicates coverage in wPolityce and related outlets, where analysts and commentators have discussed the implications of the poll for strategy and outreach among voters ahead of the European elections. The broader context includes how European-level debates—such as funding programs, regulatory alignment, and shared security commitments—are interpreted by voters at the national level and how that translates into vote intention across different political camps.
In sum, the poll paints a picture of a polarized electorate with a clear leading bloc, a competitive second tier, and a meaningful portion of voters who are poised to rethink Poland’s relationship with the Union. The turnout forecast, the distribution of support among major parties, and the documented attitudes toward EU membership together create a snapshot that political campaigns will study closely as they tailor messages to resonate with distinct voter groups across Poland and among Polish communities observing European politics from abroad.
mly/PAP
Source: wPolityce