PiS Performance, Poll Trends, and Referendum Dynamics in Poland

The analysis suggests that the ruling party, PiS, continues to gain traction by delivering on election promises that touch Poland’s material well-being, social programs, family support, and housing policies. This alignment with voter expectations appears to foster a belief among supporters that voting for another party would not yield better outcomes, a sentiment echoed by a Polish Academy of Sciences sociologist.

wPolityce.pl notes the results of three recent polls: two conducted by the Kantar studio and Social Changes on Poland’s electoral preferences, and a third asking how people would vote in a referendum. What do these results indicate?

According to Prof. Henryk Domanski, there has been a visible uptick in PiS ratings over several days in both polls, with Kantar showing an especially sharp rise. While such trends require confirmation through repeated surveys to be deemed permanent, the current data reveal a consistent picture: PiS around 38 to 39 percent, PO around 29 to 30 percent. The poll results suggest PiS’s strategy to appeal to voters is paying off, while the platform appears relatively stagnant. Tusk’s nationwide tours and the PO’s messaging have not moved the needle as effectively.

What factors are working in PiS’s favor?

Perhaps a referendum issue that is closely tied to the PiS platform. If turnout is high and the referendum questions resonate with voters, this could reinforce PiS’s perceived momentum in the polls and in the referendum question itself.

Both sets of electoral-preference polls show PiS and PO as the dominant parties, but there is divergence on who claims the third spot. Kantaro places the left in third with 8 percent, while Social Changes shows Konfederacja at 13 percent. The smaller party results carry less weight than the two leading contenders, and several indicators suggest Konfederacja might not retain the same percentage by the October deadline. Public attitudes toward immigration and toward Ukrainians influence support for Konfederacja, though the government remains critical of Ukraine’s actions and continues to respond to international calls for accountability. This cautious posture is seen as an effort to balance national security concerns with international relationships.

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Who clears the thresholds and who falls short?

The left is expected to cross into parliament, as is Konfederacja. A key question involves the Third Way, whose parliamentary entry remains uncertain.

In response to the referendum, answers to four questions show a broad reluctance, with the vast majority of respondents answering no across all items—roughly between 75 and 85 percent. If these patterns hold, they could validate the underlying narrative that participation in the referendum signals support for PiS, reinforcing the notion that the referendum was a strategic move by PiS to bolster its electoral standing. This would be a direct factor contributing to PiS’s elevated position, though not the sole one.

READ ALSO: OUR RESEARCH. How people would vote in a referendum on the ballot paper matches the survey questions

The enduring strength in PiS’s campaign rests on delivering on promises tied to Poland’s material conditions, social programs, family support, and housing—areas that matter to many voters. This reality shapes the electorate’s perception that other parties may struggle to offer a comparable package of policies.

The only notable exception to the general yes/no dynamic in the referendum questions concerns the KO electorate’s stance on raising the retirement age. In other topics, this group tends to align with PiS expectations by answering no. This alignment reflects a broader political calculus among PO supporters who supported retirement-age changes in coalition with other parties, and who may feel loyalty to their party despite policy reversals.

In summary, PiS appears well-suited to address Poland’s core concerns during the current campaign—especially in relation to unemployment. Across free-market economies, the fear of job loss persists even when unemployment rates are modest; security in work remains a primary driver of voter confidence. What could attract voters to opposition parties is less clear, but debates over issues like abortion have historically influenced polling. Yet, while many Poles support conditional or moderate abortion rights, this issue has not decisively shifted the electorate away from PiS. The opposition, led by PO, may still hope that upcoming demonstrations and past protests will alter the political arithmetic in their favor, or at least revive a turnout effect that benefits their position.

READ ALSO: PO hides the program? Commentary on modern political messaging and strategy. An analysis of recent Kantar results and what they imply for the democratic opposition

Source: wPolityce