A CBOS survey from February shows a nuanced split among voters regarding how opposition parties should compete in the autumn elections. About 32 percent of respondents prefer that each opposition party run separately, a rise of five points from October of last year. In contrast, 46 percent support a joint start, while 21 percent favor a single bloc and 13 percent favor a two-block approach. Another 6 percent imagine three or more blocks, and 29 percent offered no clear opinion.
When looking at the broader voter base, there are relatively few supporters of the idea that opposition groups should run together in a single ticket, according to the commentary on the study submitted to PAP on Thursday.
In February, 21 percent of respondents endorsed the idea of the opposition parties uniting into one common bloc. Thirteen percent believed the start should happen in two blocs, while six percent favored three or more blocks. Thirty-two percent wanted an independent start for each party, and 29 percent did not express a view.
CBOS notes that compared with last October, the momentum behind an agreement among opposition groups and a joint electoral effort has waned across the overall electorate. In the prior survey, 29 percent supported a single bloc, 15 percent favored a two-bloc approach, 5 percent supported three or more blocs, 27 percent endorsed separate starts, and 24 percent had no opinion.
Support among PiS voters stands out in shaping these results. Among PiS supporters, 50 percent favored independent operations by opposition parties, while 30 percent had no opinion. Support for a consolidated opposition start or for two or more blocs was notably lower among PiS adherents, at 8.7 percent and 5 percent respectively.
CBOS notes that recent months have seen a decline in confidence about the likelihood of a united opposition entering the elections, a trend not only reflected in overall voter numbers but also in the growing doubts among those who identify with the opposition option. The study’s commentary emphasizes this point clearly.
It also notes that among declared opposition supporters, those favoring unification and the formation of a joint electoral bloc remain the majority. Forty-six percent of opposition voters favored a joint start, while 27 percent preferred a two-block arrangement, 8 percent supported three or more blocks, and 10 percent favored a separate start. Nine percent had no opinion.
These preferences have shifted since October. Then, 59 percent backed a single list, 28 percent supported two blocs, 2 percent supported three or more, 8 percent favored separate starts, and 3 percent were undecided.
In another scenario, CBOS asked about statements for different coalition variants. With a four-party opposition coalition comprising KO, Poland 2050, the Left, and the Polish-PSL Coalition, the poll indicated 35.3 percent would support PiS, 32.6 percent would back the broad opposition coalition, and 7 percent supported the Confederacy. In a separate-left scenario, 34.6 percent would vote for PiS, 28.7 percent for a coalition of three opposition groups, 7.6 percent for the Confederacy, and 4.8 percent for the Left.
When KO aligns with the PSL-Polish coalition, predicted results would show PiS at 35.3 percent, KO-PSL at 22.3 percent, Confederation at 7 percent, Poland 2050 at 6.7 percent, and the Left at 4.5 percent. The study also examined the potential coalition of Poland 2050 with PSL-Polish Coalition, which was noted as the only scenario where a bonus for reunification appears, since the combined bloc polling 2.6 points higher than the sum of the two parties running separately. At that juncture, PiS would receive 34.8 percent, KO 19 percent, Poland 2050 with PSL-Polish Coalition 11.7 percent, Confederation 7.5 percent, and the Left 4.1 percent.
CBOS also reminded readers that the electoral threshold remains a crucial factor, particularly for the self-starting left, in the current polling environment. If the opposing bloc failed to present deputies in the Sejm, the opposition’s position in the new parliament could be weaker than if the bloc achieved a modest overall result, as hinted by the survey’s interpretation.
According to CBOS, at this stage of the autumn parliamentary election campaign, a sizable portion of respondents who say they will definitely vote, especially those who identify with the opposition, feel uncertain about possible coalition preferences. The study was conducted using a mixed-mode approach on a representative sample of adult residents drawn from the PESEL registry. This year’s survey took place from 6 to 19 February with a sample of 982 people.
— CBOS commentary on the findings is summarized here for reference.
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Source: wPolityce