In a CBOS survey, 55 percent of respondents forecast that Law and Justice (PiS) would win the Sejm elections scheduled for October 15, while views on the Senate varied. The same poll suggested that a balance of power between PiS and its coalition partners and a likely opposition-led coalition could emerge in the Senate.
What outcome do Poles expect from the elections?
The Public Opinion Research Center (CBOS) asked adults what result they anticipated for the elections. When asked who would win the Sejm race, 55 percent of respondents believed PiS and its coalition partners were favored. Twenty-two percent thought the current opposition would prevail, and 22 percent either declined to answer or indicated uncertainty.
For the Senate, opinions were more evenly split. Thirty-five percent expected PiS and its coalition partners to win, 33 percent anticipated the opposition would prevail, and 32 percent found the question difficult to answer or refused to respond.
Overall, PiS appeared to dominate expectations for the Sejm, whereas the Senate was viewed as more likely a power balance between PiS and its coalition and the opposition.
— as stated in the survey release accompanying the study.
The influence of voting preferences
The results show that respondents’ political alignments strongly shaped their predictions about the Sejm outcome. Among PiS supporters, 92 percent believed PiS would win the Sejm, while only 1 percent of PiS backers thought the opposition would win, with 7 percent citing uncertainty or non-response.
Among Civic Coalition supporters, 22 percent foresaw a PiS victory in the Sejm, whereas 66 percent predicted an opposition win, with 12 percent indicating uncertainty or refusal to answer.
Predicting the Senate result, a larger portion of PiS voters expressed uncertainty, with 64 percent saying PiS would likely win, 12 percent expecting the opposition to win, and 24 percent unsure or non-responsive.
For Civic Coalition voters, 14 percent expected a PiS victory in the Senate, while 72 percent believed the opposition would prevail, and 14 percent indicated uncertainty or non-response.
The influence of education and place of residence
The report noted that age and gender did not significantly alter predictions in general. A notable exception appeared in geographic patterns: rural residents more frequently predicted a PiS victory (55 percent) and a weaker outlook for the opposition (16 percent). Higher education correlated with greater optimism for the opposition, whereas lower education levels aligned more with support for PiS.
The survey was conducted using a mixed method on a representative sample of adult residents, drawn from the PESEL register, between September 4 and 14, 2023, involving 1,073 participants. The methodology included 62.7 percent CAPI, 23.4 percent CATI, and 13.9 percent CAWI approaches.