In the lead up to the national elections, forecasts from polls consistently show the ruling party, PiS, as the party with the strongest planned support. About 35 percent of respondents indicate they would vote for this electoral committee. The Civic Coalition trails with roughly one in five voters planning to back it, while other groups draw smaller shares of potential support, according to a new CBOS study conducted in October 2023.
Since September, the share of voters still undecided about their ballot has dropped from 23 percent. Relative shifts since September show the Civic Coalition gaining about four percentage points and Trzecia Droga gaining around two points. Support for Law and Justice and Konfederacja has each slipped by roughly one point, while the New Left has remained steady.
Looking again at the main blocs, Law and Justice is still projected to receive the largest portion of votes, with about 35 percent of declared voters indicating intent to support the party. The Civic Coalition is significantly behind, with around 22 percent of potential voters showing intent to back them. Other blocs hold notably smaller shares of public backing, reflecting a crowded field as voters make up their minds.
Beyond these main players, the current landscape includes a handful of smaller groups: the Third Way at about 6 percent, the Confederacy also at around 6 percent, and the Left at roughly 5 percent. A smaller share, around 2 percent, would vote for the nonpartisan Local Government Electoral Committee. These numbers illustrate a diverse field and a range of preferences among the electorate.
High engagement projected
A substantial portion of potential voters still refuse to reveal their preferences, with undecided voters accounting for roughly 17 percent and those who explicitly refuse to state their position at about 7 percent. In the October survey, undecided respondents were asked which electoral coalitions they were considering. The figures show that the Civic Coalition remains the most commonly considered option among undecided voters, with about 16 percent indicating they might support it, followed by Trzecia Droga at about 15 percent. Law and Justice attracted around 12 percent of undecided respondents, and the Confederacy around 10 percent, suggesting potential gains for these blocs as the election nears. Fewer undecided voters leaned toward the New Left (about 7 percent) or the Impartial Local Government Party (around 4 percent).
Researchers note that pre-election attitudes point to a record high turnout. As of this survey, roughly 87 percent of respondents say they are willing to participate in the parliamentary elections, a figure up by about 4 percentage points from September and notably higher than August levels.
The study was carried out using a mixed-method approach on a representative sample of adult residents drawn from national records. The October fieldwork spanned from the 2nd to the 11th, interviewing 1,110 adults with a mix of in-person, telephone, and online methodologies to ensure a broad cross-section of the population across Poland.
The data provide a snapshot of the political landscape and voter readiness at a critical moment before the Sejm elections, highlighting ongoing shifts among the major blocs and the persistence of a sizable undecided segment that could shape the final results.
Source material originates from a cross-sectional poll conducted for market and public opinion analysis, reporting on the distribution of voting intentions and the potential for shifts in support as campaigns intensify and new information becomes available.