The latest Ipsos survey, conducted for OKO.press and TOK FM, has sparked deep concern among voters and opposition supporters. The findings indicate growing backing for Law and Justice. When undecided voters are factored in, PiS appears to stand a real chance of winning an independent majority in the Sejm.
PiS strengthens its position
In the new Ipsos poll, PiS draws 35 percent support, up by two points from the previous study.
The Coalition for Liberty (KO) trails with 26 percent, reflecting a five-point drop. The Left remains at 8 percent, and Confederation also sits at 8 percent, marking a decrease of four points from the prior survey.
Third Way, the alliance of PSL and Szymon Hołownia’s Polish 2050, garners 6 percent, a one-point decline, while non-partisan local governments hold 1 percent support.
The remaining respondents chose the category other, while 14 percent indicated they did not know or were undecided.
According to the survey, 68 percent of respondents intend to vote, the same share as in June, with 58 percent certain and 10 percent leaning toward voting. About 25 percent of respondents plan not to participate, and 8 percent said it is hard to say or they do not know yet.
The research also suggests that if the undecided votes are distributed proportionally, PiS could secure an independent majority in the Sejm for a third time. KO would obtain 154 seats, Confederation 39, the Left 32, and the German minority 1.
However, OKO.press notes that if Trzecia Droga crosses the 8 percent threshold, the coalition would prevent PiS from holding an independent majority.
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Panic among opposition voters
The poll results create real drama for opposition voters and supporters, who vent their frustrations on social media. Some question the value of widespread polls with high undecided percentages, arguing they confuse voters and dampen turnout.
Opinions from readers vary. Wojciech Czuchnowski of Gazeta Wyborcza expressed strong disagreement with the poll’s portrayal of trends, while others suggested the polling landscape may be manipulated or misinterpreted.
Commentators in the KO camp, including Marta Smolańska, have offered mixed reactions. Some doubted the scale of support shown for PiS, while others warned against drawing premature conclusions from the data.
The discussion extended to analysis of past polls. Observers recalled earlier forecast patterns before elections, noting discrepancies between poll numbers and final vote outcomes.
Additionally, voices from the political spectrum argued that momentum could shift, depending on events, campaigns, and policy developments. The conversation highlighted the volatility of polling in a polarized environment.
In summary, the Ipsos results have intensified scrutiny of polling methods, underscored worries about undecided voters, and reinforced the perception that party support might translate into a governing majority if the undecided vote distributes proportionally. The debate continues as analysts weigh how these numbers could influence campaign strategies and public perception ahead of the next electoral test.
wkt/PAP/TT [citation: wPolityce]