The segment of the electorate that has not yet fixed its vote has long been a focal point for political formations. They present the possibility to sway outcomes, especially when polls tighten. In this cycle, persuading those on the fence has surged in importance because they could decide regional results in the Community of Valencia. It is estimated that around 30% of voters will wait until the final week before 28M to choose their party, while young people constitute another target group for campaigns. Experts note that this demographic often begins with a predisposition toward progressive ideas.
Polls released to date suggest the next government of Valencia will hinge on a small margin. The critical question is whether Unides Podem can surpass the 5% threshold needed for representation in the Cortes. Crossing that line would bring Botànic closer to a left-leaning coalition with its partners; missing it opens the door for the PP to lead the Generalitat presidency. In this tight scenario, the undecided vote becomes decisive.
Around the same vein, the undecided are expected to shape municipal outcomes as well. As in the previous election, about a third of voters may cast their ballots in the final week, a sizable share given turnout patterns from prior cycles. Across the Community, roughly 828,000 voters could be undecided, with about 280,000 in Alicante province specifically. The influence of the undecided in the municipal sphere will depend on the balance of support between left and right in each municipality.
Another group with potential impact is first-time voters who have reached legal adulthood for this election. In regional terms, this cohort numbers 186,971, and at the provincial level, 59,550. Their choices could tilt outcomes if they mobilize in significant numbers.
What do analysts think about the behavior of these two groups? sociologist Carlos Gómez Gil of the University of Alicante notes that a 30% undecided rate is common in recent elections at both national and regional levels. He describes undecided voters as those who pause before deciding rather than being passive or apathetic. He explains that some voters are already fully convinced and politicized, but there are others who reach a moment of ambiguity, not due to confusion, but as part of a natural decision cycle.
Gómez Gil adds that the high share of undecided voters is crucial for mobilization. Campaigns employ different tactics aimed at this segment. He observes that left-leaning groups advocate for continuity with Botanic’s regional administration, while right-leaning factions emphasize courage and national critique. Frequent references to Bildu and terrorism illustrate the emotional tools used in this strategy.
What strategies might yield better results? Gómez Gil suggests that a dynamic approach—what he terms a form of “electric voting”—could be more effective in large cities where national political currents are louder. He cautions, however, that such mobilization may be less effective in smaller municipalities where local ties and proximity weigh more heavily than broad ideological appeals. Valencia stands out as the only major city in the region, while Alicante remains a mid-sized city with a strong sense of neighborhood structure that makes local issues especially salient.
Regarding youth turnout, Gómez Gil notes that not all young voters stay away. Polls show a small share of those certain they will not vote, with percentages around 2.5% for the youngest group, compared with slightly higher figures for older age brackets. He argues that many young voters gravitate toward parties offering reliable solutions, particularly for issues like unemployment and housing. Historically progressive in orientation, this cohort often emphasizes gender equality and recognition of LGBTQ+ rights, suggesting a penchant to support newer or reform-oriented movements over traditional parties. As age increases, the political stance tends to tilt more conservative, especially on pension-related concerns.
Lluís Catalá, a sociology professor at the University of Alicante, notes that while the undecided share remains high, it is slowly shrinking. He points to the emergence of new political formations, such as Podemos, which expand choices and nuance for voters. When it comes to youth, Catalá describes their voting as largely rebellious. They may not align with long-standing power blocs, and those who lean left might support newer options like Compromís, while some on the right could turn to Vox instead of the PP. He highlights that young voters often see current government and opposition as the main frame of reference and respond with a more anti-establishment posture.
According to Catalá, younger voters tend to act in opposition rather than out of loyalty. In contrast, older voters often favor parties that promise stronger guarantees on pensions and other social protections. The overarching reality is that all parties are attempting to persuade undecided voters and first-time participants for the upcoming election. Campaigns feature extensive ground efforts across the community and a dominant social media presence, with each party presenting targeted messages aimed at undecided voters and other key groups. PSPV-PSOE emphasizes campaigning across neighborhoods to articulate its vision, while PPCV highlights a broad slate of activities designed to shape the government’s program. Ciudadanos places undecideds at the center of discourse, aligning with Compromís’s mobilization strategy. Vox emphasizes its governance record in Castilla y León, and Unides Podem focuses on street-level engagement in cities to support its candidates and administration program, showcasing a focus on local concerns and practical governance.