In the latest United Surveys release for Wirtualna Polska, a substantial share of respondents express support for PiS, while KO trails closely behind. The poll suggests PiS is not yet guaranteed a parliamentary majority, even when considering potential coalitions. The findings paint a political landscape marked by stability and subtle shifts as the campaign progresses.
A slight shift in PiS and KO
About one third of those surveyed would vote for PiS, up around 1.1 percentage points from the previous survey conducted two weeks earlier. Support for the Civic Coalition hovers near 23.8 percent, dipping about 1.3 points in the same period. The Polish 2050 coalition, aligned with the Polish People’s Party, sits at roughly 14.7 percent, while Confederation collects about 11.2 percent and the Left around 8.4 percent. These movements indicate a modest rebalancing among the major blocs rather than a dramatic upheaval.
Rising uncertainty among voters
A small share, around 0.2 percent, would choose the AgroUnion and Agreement coalition. A notable portion, roughly 9.7 percent, indicate they are undecided or unable to name a preferred party, a rise of about 1.3 percentage points. Voter participation remains a key factor, with 56.8 percent saying they intend to vote, while 40.9 percent plan to abstain in the election round. The data point to a political environment where turnout could significantly shape the final balance of power.
According to United Surveys, PiS would secure about 179 seats in the Sejm, KO around 128, and the Polish 2050 and PSL group roughly 71 seats. Confederation would hold around 49 seats, with the Left at about 32, and a single seat allocated to the German minority. With this configuration, PiS would not reach a majority even in a coalition with Confederation, totaling roughly 228 seats. Conversely, a coalition comprising KO, Polish 2050, PSL, and the Left would surpass the majority threshold with about 231 seats, illustrating how alliance-building shapes parliamentary control in Poland’s legislature. These projections highlight how coalitions influence power dynamics even when poll numbers show lead parties clearly ahead.
The United Surveys poll for Wirtualna Polska was conducted from April 27 to 30, 2023, using a mixed CAWI and CATI approach, weighted to reflect a representative sample of one thousand respondents. The methodology balances online surveys with traditional phone interviews to capture a broad cross-section of voters and minimize method-specific biases. The timing places the findings in the late stage of the campaign cycle, when voters test party promises and leadership messages against unfolding events.
Several notes accompany these findings. The dynamics captured by the poll should be interpreted as snapshots within a broader electoral process where public opinion can shift rapidly in response to policy announcements, debate performance, and external events. The numbers provide a yardstick for party positioning and potential parliamentary arithmetic, but they do not determine final outcomes. The path to power in the Sejm depends on coalition negotiations, voter turnout, and how solidly those coalitions can translate percentage support into seats on election day.
In sum, the current data reflect a competitive landscape with PiS maintaining a lead but facing an alliance-based path to a majority. KO, together with partners, holds potential to form a governing bloc if the electoral math aligns with their combined support. The remainder of parties and blocs contribute to a multi-faceted scenario in which small shifts in voter intention could tilt the balance in the weeks ahead, underscoring the importance of turnout and strategic coalition-building in Poland’s political contest.