Strengthening support for law and justice
A recent CBOS survey shows a rise in support for Law and Justice and a drop for the Civic Coalition since the July measurement. Nearly four in ten potential voters indicate they would vote for PiS, a figure rising to 37 percent, up eight percentage points. By contrast, support for the Civic Coalition stands at 21 percent, down seven points. The survey also notes a slight weakening of the Confederation of Freedom and Independence, with six percent indicating intent to vote for it, down three points since July. Support for the Third Way and for the Left remains relatively stable, each drawing five and four percent of potential voters respectively.
The head of the Government Analysis Center, Norbert Maliszewski, commented on social media that the data corroborate a growing mandate for safety and national policy priorities, including opposition to the relocation of migrants, the sale of national assets, the raising of the retirement age, and the dismantling of the border fence. The statement was posted on the X platform and linked to information on the wPolityce.pl portal in the submission.
The CBOS results indicate a notable shift in public opinion, with PiS gaining momentum and the Civic Coalition losing ground. In contrast, the Confederation of Freedom and Independence declines appear modest but persistent, while the other major groups show stability in their stated support levels.
The percentage of undecided voters
The survey highlights a rising share of undecided voters despite the approaching parliamentary elections. The proportion of respondents who have not yet decided how to vote increased from 18 percent in July to 24 percent in August, marking the highest level observed this year. Overall electoral intent remains steady, with around 80 percent of respondents expressing they plan to participate in the upcoming parliamentary vote planned for October 15. The data suggests a relatively constant trend since May regarding overall engagement and undecided status.
The fieldwork was conducted from August 14 to 27, with a sample size of 1,024 people. The composition included 61.9 percent via computer-assisted personal interviewing, 24.8 percent via telephone interviewing, and 13.3 percent via online responses. The survey asked respondents which party or group they would vote for in the Sejm elections. The possible choices covered Law and Justice in alliance with Sovereign Poland, the Republican Party, and Kukiz 15; the Civic Coalition comprising Civic Platform, Modern, Polish Initiative, Greens, and Agrounia; the Confederation of Freedom and Independence including New Hope, National Movement, and the Confederation of the Polish Crown; the Third Way coalition including Poland 2050 led by Szymon Hołownia and PSL; and the Left alliance including New Left, Together, the Polish Socialist Party, and the Trade Union.
Analysts note that the data reflect a broader debate on national issues and party strategies ahead of the vote. The findings are published by wPolityce, with ongoing coverage analyzing shifts in public sentiment and the implications for coalition dynamics.
Source: wPolityce