Polls show Law and Justice extending its lead as KO lags behind
Polling data from a recent IBRiS survey reported by Onet indicates a widening gap between Law and Justice and the Citizens Coalition, with Confederation in third place. Voters in Poland appear to be centering their attention on the two governing blocs, while other parties stay in the mix as the Sejm elections approach.
According to the latest readings, Law and Justice (PiS) holds 35.1 percent of support, reflecting an increase of 1.8 percentage points since the prior survey conducted on September 13. This rise places PiS firmly ahead in the public’s eyes and reinforces its status as the leading political force in the country, a trend that observers note could influence government formation in the next Sejm.
The Citizens Coalition (KO), led by Donald Tusk, sits in second place with 26.1 percent of voter backing. This figure marks a marginal decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous poll, signaling some wavering support for the main opposition bloc as voters weigh possible coalitions and policy agendas ahead of election day.
Confederation maintains third position
Confederation climbs back to the third slot with 9.9 percent, down 0.2 points from the last measurement. The party’s role in the parliamentary math remains significant, as its members could influence the government’s fate once the new Sejm convenes. Analysts highlight that even small shifts among smaller blocs can alter coalition dynamics and the balance of power in a hung parliament scenario.
Meanwhile, Third Way, known for its centrist-right stance, reaches 9.2 percent, up by 1 percentage point from the previous survey. The Left trades places, slipping to 9.1 percent from its prior level of support by a two-point margin, underscoring heightened volatility and fluid voter loyalties as the election nears.
Projected seat distribution
Extrapolating from the IBRiS data, Onet presents a seat distribution projection for the Sejm that shows PiS with a clear plurality, KO in the second tier, and Confederation, Third Way, and the Left competing for smaller blocs. The snapshot places the German minority at one seat, adding a note on the diverse makeup of the potential parliamentary coalition landscape. These projections underscore how close contests can be when turnout and voter intention shift in the run-up to polling day.
Turnout expectations are part of the discussion, with the projection suggesting a possible participation rate around 62.9 percent if elections were held on a Sunday. Within this, roughly 54.8 percent of voters are described as certain to vote, while an additional 8.1 percent express a likelihood to participate. These figures illustrate how engagement levels can influence the final composition of the Sejm and the formation of a governing majority, whether in coalition or through a single-party outcome.
In summary, the contemporary polling picture shows PiS maintaining a comfortable lead, KO facing ongoing challenges, and other parties along with new movements jockeying for position as voters weigh coalition scenarios and the likely configuration of the next government. The evolving support patterns reflect a volatile political landscape where small shifts can ripple into meaningful changes in the balance of power as Poland approaches its electoral decision.