Election Pulse in Poland: What the Latest IBRiS Survey Reveals
If the elections were held next Sunday, the ruling party would lead with about 35 percent of the vote, while the main opposition would trail at roughly 27 percent. A smaller list, known as Third Way, would secure a little over 10 percent. The left would enter the Sejm with approximately 10 percent, and Confederation would exceed the electoral threshold with around 9.5 percent. These figures come from an IBRiS survey conducted for Onet according to the outlet’s reporting.
Turnout expectations show a broad willingness to vote: about 61 percent of those surveyed indicated they planned to participate, with around 49.8 percent saying they would certainly vote and 11.6 percent indicating a preference to vote. Roughly 37.4 percent expected not to vote, including 21.9 percent who would absolutely abstain and 15.5 percent who were uncertain. These numbers reflect shifting attitudes as the campaign moves forward.
The most supported party is Law and Justice with 35.1 percent, followed by Civic Coalition at 27 percent. The gap points to an eight percentage point advantage for the governing party over its closest rival, underscoring a competitive but currently tilted landscape.
Governance dynamics and public sentiment are underscored by ongoing commentary from political observers. The poll podium places Third Way at 10.4 percent, with the coalition of the Polish People’s Party and Poland 2050 in close proximity. The left trails with about 10.1 percent, and Confederation earns 9.5 percent. Smaller nonparty organizations such as Samorządowcy and Polska Jest Jedno would likely remain outside the electoral threshold, polling at about 2 percent and 0.3 percent respectively. These figures illustrate a fragmented field beyond the top two blocs.
When undecided responses are counted, about 5.6 percent of respondents were unsure or found the outcome difficult to predict. The portal notes this is the most notable change since the previous survey, with undecideds rising by roughly 3.5 percentage points in a short span.
Seat projections drawn from the IBRiS data suggest the following distribution in the Sejm: PiS would hold about 195 seats, KO around 150, Third Way roughly 41, the Left about 38, and Confederation about 35, with the German minority taking a single seat. The picture is clear: PiS would not be able to govern alone, and the possibility of forming a government would require cross-party cooperation, given that the combined total of PiS and Confederation sits at 230 seats, just short of a constitutional majority. Achieving governance would necessitate support from other opposition groups.
Forecasts also indicate that KO, Third Way, and Left together would accumulate 229 seats, leaving a theoretical path to power open only if regional or minority representatives aligned with these blocs. The analysis emphasizes that the current configuration would still require broader consensus to form a stable government.
In expert commentary, the notion of a ceiling on party support is discussed, with observations that PiS managed to halt a noticeable decline in support for much of the period under review. The campaign activity has produced a modest uptick, around two to three percentage points, reinforcing the idea of a temporary plateau in backing that could be influenced by upcoming events and mobilization efforts.
Meanwhile, the Civic Coalition remains near its midcycle average, showing less volatility than in earlier months but still resonating with the electorate in line with recent election results. Analysts note that ongoing mobilization and potential turnout shifts could influence the trajectories of Third Way and Links in the run-up to voting day.
ILBRiS conducted the survey for Onet with a national sample of about one thousand adults, using telephone interviews and standardized computer-assisted questionnaires to gather responses. The fieldwork took place toward the end of September in the year of the report, providing a snapshot of attitudes during a period of intensifying political debate.
These insights have been summarized by Onet and cited in reports published by various outlets during the period. The overall message is one of a competitive landscape with clear advantages for PiS in current polling, but with a very real possibility of shifts driven by turnout, mobilization, and coalition dynamics that could alter the seat math as ballots are cast.
Note: This summary reflects the election landscape as reported by Onet based on an IBRiS survey. Observers are advised to monitor upcoming polling rounds, debates, and campaign events that may reshape voter intentions ahead of the election in Poland.
Source attribution: Onet via IBRiS polling data and subsequent analysis in public reporting. No external links are provided within this article, with citations pointing to the original outlets for context.