Following the parliamentary elections held on October 15, public opinion surveys conducted by IBRiS for Radio ZET reveal a split view on who will lead Poland in the ensuing term. The survey shows 39.8 percent of respondents believing PiS will govern independently or together with the Confederation, while 24.3 percent expect the opposition to take power. A small portion, 0.9 percent, anticipates a coalition between the so-called democratic opposition and the Confederation, and 13.2 percent think a minority government will emerge, possibly triggering early elections.
Who will govern after the elections?
In a survey published on Monday by Radio ZET, IBRiS asked participants to choose who they think will rule Poland after the October 15 parliamentary elections. The results show 21.1 percent foresee an independent United Right government, consisting of PiS and its coalition partners. Another 18.7 percent see a plausible scenario in which the United Right aligns with the Confederation.
Viewpoints favoring the so-called democratic opposition—that is, the Civic Coalition, the Left, and the Third Way—garnered 24.3 percent of responses. Acknowledging uncertainty, 0.9 percent of respondents predicted governance by this bloc in coalition with the Confederation. A notable share, 21.8 percent, could not clearly estimate who might govern, signaling a broad level of ambiguity among the public.
Or perhaps a minority government?
Another line of thinking from the survey is that a minority government could take power, with 13.2 percent of respondents supporting that possibility and suggesting that early elections might be called as a consequence. These figures reflect a divided political landscape and a level of uncertainty about the formation of a stable governing coalition in the immediate aftermath of the vote.
The IBRiS study, conducted on October 6 and 7 using the CATI method, interviewed a national sample of 1,000 people. The polling context underscores how public opinion at the time was split across multiple scenarios for Poland’s governance in the coming period, with variations in coalition prospects among the major political camps. (citation: wPolityce)