The question of how the United Right could secure victory and a third term is answered plainly in an interview with the weekly magazine Sieci by Ryszard Czarnecki: run a solid campaign and make only a handful of missteps. Yet the bigger picture reveals other factors, including the need to keep coalition options open. The discussion touches on the Confederation as a potential PiS partner, but only as a possibility.
“Always Have a Plan B”
Returning to the Confederation, it is a broad and recently fractious alliance. Its wide spectrum of opinions has, over time, blurred direction. Czarnecki argues that internal clashes within the Confederation could paradoxically leave room for future cooperation with PiS, even on parliamentary matters.
The Confederation shows internal variety. There are lawmakers with whom agreement is nearly impossible and others with whom talks remain feasible, the MEP notes.
When asked whether the Confederation might break apart, he replies that he does not think so. Shifts seem more like a power struggle over control, and that could create a more workable atmosphere for possible PiS-Confederation cooperation, even in certain parliamentary segments. Notably, Robert Winnicki has recently floated terms that could bridge the parties.
He adds: you should always have a plan B.
On the surface, PiS voters and the party appear closest to the Confederation’s nationalist wing. Still, concrete political statements on this are unlikely in the near future. Today, Nowogrodzka is pursuing the top prize—the third independent term. The Confederation itself may not yet know its own direction. It will likely crystallize closer to the elections, and any statements would probably surface just before or after the vote, depending on whether Jarosław Kaczyński’s circle can govern alone or needs extra coalition partners.
READ MORE: Ryszard Czarnecki in Sieci: There’s a plan A, a plan B. “What opposition, goals like that. Shake-hand race with Biden.”
But does PiS’s coalition capacity end there? In the author’s view, not, even if it may seem at first glance that Kaczyński’s camp has limited alternatives.
“Patience, Mr. President, patience.”
If not with part of the Confederation, then perhaps with the peasants. The question of a PiS-PSL coalition has lingered almost throughout the United Right’s second term. It was most prominent when Solidarna Polska appeared ready to bow out. Kosiniak-Kamysz’s peasants could step in for the Ziobrists, yet that scenario never materialized. A memorable remark by President Kaczyński, addressed to PSL leader Kosiniak-Kamysz, is recalled from December 2020 during a debate over the dismissal of Jarosław Kaczyński from his role as Deputy Prime Minister for Security. Kosiniak-Kamysz urged Poles to stay in the European Union and be a strong nation within it.
The deputy prime minister at the time responded with measured tones from the Sejm podium. The speeches hinted at political propositions that were perhaps premature and showed inexperience in some speakers, Kaczyński observed. Looking toward Kosiniak-Kamysz, he added: “Patience, Mr. President, patience.”
A week before the RMF FM debate, Marek Sawicki admitted that Kosiniak-Kamysz had discussions with several PiS figures about potential consensus on those two issues and the EU question. The aim was to align on the start of the EU summit, addressing the EU budget and the veto by Poland and Hungary, alongside proposed compromises. Sawicki later stated on TOK FM that PSL was not aiming to join a PiS coalition.
PiS’s coalition experience is well known, the speaker notes, and the dynamics have shifted since then. Today, Kosiniak-Kamysz has formed a potential alliance with Szymon Hołownia, and there is growing chatter about a joint electoral bid, though no formal decision has been announced. Yet media chatter continues about conversations between PiS lawmakers and farmers.
Kosiniak-Kamysz Prime Minister of Kaczyński?
A bold idea surfaces: in a scenario where PiS wins but falls short of a majority, opposition groups, notably PSL and perhaps part of Poland 2050, might consider a PiS-led coalition. The Kaczyński camp could offer governance advantages for coalition partners that would be more appealing than what opposing camps propose.
Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz as Prime Minister under Jarosław Kaczyński? It might sound like political fiction, yet a similar suggestion surfaced in 2019 from Katarzyna Kolenda-Zaleska. In that year, as European Parliament elections approached, Schetyna wrestled with forming a broad coalition, while many opponents hesitated to join such an unlikely experiment. The political landscape remains unsettled, with the possibility that PSL or other parties could be drawn into a PiS-led arrangement should post-election dynamics require it.
The public discourse about PSL as a flexible partner persists, though past years have shown real resistance to anti-democratic temptations within Kosiniak-Kamysz’s ranks. Kolenda-Zaleska noted this as a factor shaping the party’s choices. The central question remains: how long can a president restrain activist appetites if a coalition promise would prove more merciful after the election?
And if a coalition were formed, the question would shift to where voters stand. If a compromise on pension reform could be sold as beneficial for Poland, a coalition framed as a pragmatic national project might gain traction.
Hołownia has already helped Kaczyński
What of Szymon Hołownia? The discussion hints at several past gestures that could influence the political chessboard. Hołownia did not back Rafał Trzaskowski immediately in the second round of the presidential race. He also voted against certain Supreme Court amendments, a move that frustrated Tusk’s camp and allies. By not agreeing to a single electoral list, Hołownia complicated a united front against Kaczyński, which some critics say benefited PiS.
There is also talk of Hołownia’s voters, some of whom appear wary of Donald Tusk. If a broader alliance with Hołownia emerges, PiS could leverage those dynamics, though the risk of a formal coalition dissolving remains a strategic concern for Nowogrodzka. In this context, the possibility of a broader coalition landscape beyond the Confederacy—potentially including farmers or Hołownia’s movement—still lingers in political analysis.
In summary, PiS should maintain a plan B in case seats fall short after the elections. The coalition horizon appears wider than a simple Confederacy alliance, potentially including the peasants and other partners, which could complicate or enhance governing capabilities depending on the post-election arithmetic. The coming months promise intense political maneuvering.
One thing remains clear: the period ahead is likely to be eventful.