A political analyst from the Polish Academy of Sciences, Henryk Domański, notes in an interview that voters backing the current coalition parties appear content with a change of power but are hoping for a clear strategic and programmatic course. They want something new and positive from the government, yet it seems the coalition is not delivering that. Instead, it is focused on holding PiS accountable and offering fresh excuses, which might give the impression that more options are unaffordable.
In a discussion with wPolityce.pl, the interviewer asks whether strong support for the ruling coalition will endure, especially since the first hundred days of the new government saw few of KO’s election promises fulfilled. Some measures have emerged that critics describe as pressuring PiS or as politically motivated retribution. Observers also question whether the takeover of various institutions is nearly legal, or even illegal, according to some legal experts.
Domanski explains that, in his view, overall party support has not changed significantly since the election, with the exception of the Third Way, where support is waning. What is happening, he says, is a defense of the post-election status quo. He notes that PiS has returned to the top of the polls in recent weeks, according to three recent studies, which he believes are not coincidental. If one looks at CBOS reports, which gauge public perception of the government and its direction, the ratings for the current administration have trended downward. The prevailing takeaway is impatience and discouragement with the present government.
Even if polls show PiS ahead of KO, Domanski emphasizes that PiS formally captured the last election but not in practice. The latest polls suggest that, had elections been held again, the parties in the ruling coalition would likely win together once more.
The situation also shows rifts within the governing coalition. Voters seem to expect the coalition to offer a new, concrete program rather than continued accountability for past actions, which some describe as insufficient, and perhaps even as a missed opportunity. There are concerns about whether the coalition could sustain broad public support if it must govern for four years on details that do not translate into meaningful reforms.
Jan Grabiec, head of the Prime Minister’s Office, posted on a social platform that there are specifics, seemingly in reference to police or investigative actions that touched members of Sovereign Poland. The question remains whether such investigations and the ongoing scrutiny of PiS politicians over four years will be enough to secure a victory in the next elections.
Domanski casts doubt on the longevity of such tactics. He cites public disapproval of house searches conducted on Sovereign Poland members and a dramatic parliamentary speech by Zbigniew Ziobro as events that could alter voter sentiment. If the pattern were to intensify, and if other appointments—such as the presidency of the National Bank of Poland—overlapped with these developments, KO’s support could drop sharply, perhaps to levels seen in past years. The analyst notes that voters are beginning to expect a different, more tangible living standard from those in power, beyond broad promises like tax changes that were announced but not enacted.
One of KO’s most public promises—raising the tax-free allowance to a level around 60,000 zloty—was not implemented this year, and finance officials confirmed it would not happen next year either. Voters tend to respond to concrete measures, and there is growing talk that a broader shift in energy and environmental policy could influence electoral outcomes. For instance, the potential ban on internal combustion engines in city centers and debates over the pace of development in various settlements are cited as issues that could sway public opinion.
There is speculation that internal polling or government-commissioned research seeks to prove that proposals favoring PiS reside electorally well. If the results suggested otherwise, a policy course might change. A potential coalition shift, especially with the Third Way, could stabilize or destabilize the current arrangement depending on how the parties converge on issues like abortion and other core differences.
During a recent party convention, Szymon Hołownia issued a cautious ultimatum regarding health insurance premium policy for entrepreneurs, indicating that changes to those rules could determine whether the Third Way remains in the coalition. The prospect of positions on farmers’ interests and the Green Deal is also noted. Demonstrations by farmers blocking roads have become less common in recent times, but public opinion appears to recognize that the European Union will push forward on the Green Deal—a factor that could weigh on the government’s standing.
Speculation about PiS’s electoral future centers on two conditions: first, PiS must restore coalition-building capabilities and secure a partner within the government framework; second, PiS should reform its public image by embracing a younger leadership cohort, including figures like President Andrzej Duda after his term and Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Such leadership changes might restore confidence and widen the party’s appeal beyond its traditional base.
Regarding leadership, questions persist about whether a change in PiS’s helm is imminent. Jarosław Kaczyński has signaled his intention to seek another term, and observers note that any planned transition faces resistance within PiS. Some argue that a true generational shift would require a new tone and strategy that aligns with contemporary voter expectations. The discussion also touches on voices within allied movements that advocate reform, as highlighted by debates led by Patryk Jaki, a Sovereign Poland MEP, who urged reforms that would influence the coalition’s balance. Although Jaki later stepped back from pressuring the coalition, the exchange underscored the demand for meaningful change within United Right.
Ultimately, the consolidation of the United Right remains visible, with no clear signs of dissolution following the 2011 experience. The current dynamics show ongoing negotiation, hesitation, and attempts to present a united front while acknowledging internal disagreements that could influence future electoral outcomes.