A political analyst, Professor Henryk Domański of the Polish Academy of Sciences, explains a strategic scenario for PiS. He argues that intensifying the rivalry between Szymon Hołownia and a candidate from the Civic Platform could drive Hołownia toward a loss. In his view, the most advantageous path for PiS would be to see a PiS member, such as Mateusz Morawiecki, reach the second round, paired against Rafał Trzaskowski or Donald Tusk. In that setup, Hołownia’s supporters who felt overlooked might pivot to the PiS candidate. The second round, in his assessment, would be decisive for determining whether the ruling coalition endures a full term or faces significant political consequences.
READ ALSO:
– QUESTIONNAIRE. Does Donald Tusk hear this? 51.4 percent of Poles believe that the government’s priority should be the fight against rising prices
– They didn’t even finish this?! “Gazeta Wyborcza”: “The budget harbors resentment against Tusk’s government for the fictitious 20 percent increase”
– Hypocrisy of those in power! The Prime Minister’s Office was to be downsized, but Tusk’s office was given 95 new employees.
wPolityce.pl: An article has appeared on the website Wyborcza.biz stating that the current government has not fully fulfilled its promise of 20% increases for public sector employees, there is also the text from “Fakt” that as many as 95 new people have been hired in the Prime Minister’s Office, and there is no mention of the announced downsizing of Donald Tusk’s office. Could news of unfulfilled election promises ultimately lead to a decline in support for the current government?
Prof. Henryk Domański notes that election promises are rarely fulfilled in full, regardless of who makes them. Regarding Donald Tusk, he suggests that the electorate has grown accustomed to political promises made to secure support, and a sizable portion may regard those promises as not crucial. He observes that the government’s economic policy, guided by the Minister of Finance, has recently shown signs of shifting back toward liberal policies associated with the opposition party, a development he believes will not dramatically affect the government’s ratings.
The question remains whether the focus on holding predecessors accountable for the entire four-year term will suffice to propel the current government to victory in the next parliamentary elections.
Recent United Surveys by IBRiS for DGP and RMF FM indicate that the public’s priorities center on addressing rising prices, with 51.4 percent of respondents selecting it, while only 16.4 percent emphasize accountability for past governance. This signals a misalignment between public concerns and the government’s stated priorities, even though recent polls show the opposition retaining a lead in overall party preferences.
There are also concerns about increasing energy and utility costs. How these changes influence party support remains a key question for the political map.
From an economic perspective, the rising cost of living is most painful for households with the lowest incomes, potentially widening inequality. In the short term, this tends to help PiS only marginally; over a longer horizon, a more attentive stance on these issues could bolster PiS’s chances in future elections. Whether PiS can form a governing coalition, however, remains an open question.
The public’s appetite for reassurance plays a crucial role. People respond to signals that efforts are being made to mitigate costs, which can dampen concerns about the magnitude of changes, at least in the near term.
Internal disagreements within the governing coalition, notably around abortion liberalization and relations with the Polish People’s Party, add another layer of fragility. Public opinion does not deem these topics as the most pressing, but leadership-level tensions can still provoke negative reactions. The coalition’s stability rests on a delicate balance struck by its leaders, while public sentiment shows little appetite for broad changes in this area.
There have been intense moments and even protests targeted at party offices, reflecting the heightened emotions surrounding coalition dynamics. Nevertheless, observers expect the coalition to endure through the presidential election period, though the political weather could become stormier afterward.
Post-election calculations hinge on the result. If PiS gains ground, the strategic move would be to intensify competition between Hołownia and a rival from PO, pushing Hołownia toward defeat. The most favorable outcome for PiS would feature a PiS candidate in the second round, against a rival such as Trzaskowski or Tusk, potentially drawing Hołownia’s disaffected voters toward PiS. The second round would likely prove pivotal for the coalition’s future and its capacity to govern beyond the current term.
Overall, the political landscape remains fluid, with shifts in public sentiment, coalition negotiations, and electoral timing all contributing to a scenario that could redefine the balance of power in the near future.
not. ace