PiS Support and the Waiting Room: Post-March Polls and Predictions

PiS is estimated to have about a million voters lingering in the so‑called waiting room, comprising those undecided or passive about the election, while it also holds the potential to govern on its own, according to Norbert Maliszewski, head of the Government Analysis Center. In a conversation with PAP, he notes that changes in polling after the October 1 march do not reach statistical significance for the Civic Coalition (KO). He adds that the movement in the polls is not enough to claim a breakthrough for KO based on the March event.

Donald Tusk spoke with residents of Rzeszów in the Podkarpackie region about the findings of an internal KO survey conducted after Sunday’s Million Hearts March. He shared the preliminary results publicly on the social platform X, formerly known as Twitter.

On the last portion of the release, KO posted the following results from a 1,500‑person sample taken after the march: PiS 34.3, KO 33.6, Left 11.3, Confederation 8.8, Third Way 8.6. The Platform Leaders stated these figures in a post, highlighting their interpretation of the data.

Norbert Maliszewski, the head of the Government Analysis Center and a secretary of state at the Prime Minister’s Chancellery, emphasized in an interview that publishing internal polls can sway public opinion and is not a neutral act. He argued that social engineering appears to be part of Donald Tusk’s political approach, and that releasing such polls bears social responsibility.

Maliszewski pointed out that some media outlets have begun to frame the Million Hearts March as a turning point, portraying it as a show of opposition sentiment that passed through Warsaw on October 1. He suggested that the observed shifts in polling, from KO’s perspective, lack statistical significance and seem designed to create a narrative of a breakthrough that the survey does not substantiate. The liberal Politico poll average, he noted, still places KO below a 30 percent ceiling.

He also mentioned that leaks about internal surveys are seen as attempts to influence outcomes using an unclear methodology, potentially involving a sponsor effect or leading questions that would favor the PO.

PiS research is underestimated

As Maliszewski explained, there are persistent claims that PiS has little chance for a third term, and he identified at least two realistic scenarios that challenge that view.

The first scenario suggests PiS is underestimated because some segments of the electorate—especially in smaller towns and cities—are harder for research outfits to reach. The spiral of silence may also play a role, with some voters reluctant to reveal political preferences that clash with mainstream media narratives. The strong opposition to quota policies for illegal migrants is often cited as a topic deemed politically incorrect in liberal circles.

The second scenario concerns the polarization of the political scene late in the campaign. The outcomes for Third Way, the Left, and even the Confederation could fall short of poll estimates, according to the RCA head.

He added that there are always last minute voters. Even if opponents paint a favorable media story, it could galvanize support for the Third Way by underscoring that breaking the electoral threshold for this formation would bring Law and Justice closer to governing on its own, potentially by ten seats. In that case, voters might rally behind PiS or KO to determine governance.

According to Maliszewski, Law and Justice stands a chance to rule independently. He stressed the need for strong ground work and mobilization of the waiting room voters as well as the undecided and passive, and warned against being swayed by opposition manipulation. The objective for PiS is to mobilize a wider base by October 15, aiming not at a large march but at robust turnout from supporters, sometimes described as patriots who believe in the country’s future.

There is a sense that PiS could secure the ability to govern alone if turnout and support align in the final stretch of the campaign. The party aims to solidify its position, drawing on the support of committed supporters who are prepared to participate and to vote for leadership that aligns with their views.

In closing, the discussion noted that parliamentary elections are scheduled for October 15, with Poland electing 460 deputies and 100 senators for four-year terms.

— End of analysis.

READ ALSO:

– Comedy! Tusk boasts about internal survey results after the KO march, prompting a wave of online reactions. Participant survey or not? [Attribution: wPolityce; PAP]

— Tusk to participate in a TVP debate, while challenging PiS president again with a provocative remark: Jarosław Kaczyński, perhaps you have the courage to respond. [Attribution: wPolityce]

Source: wPolityce