PiS Aims to Repeat 2019 Victory Amid Polarized Polish Electoral Climate

The goal in the upcoming fall election is to replicate the 2019 outcome, a strategy shaped by the high polarization that makes it challenging to attract new voters. Norbert Maliszewski, head of the Government Analysis Center, described to Dziennik Gazeta Prawna the task of mobilizing supporters who are currently disengaged, labeling them as waiting room voters who need to be brought back into the fold.

Is PiS preparing to lose?

Maliszewski dismissed the idea that PiS is headed toward defeat. He noted that while the political landscape has shifted since 2015, there are several arguments suggesting the opposition may prematurely declare victory before the elections conclude.

He stressed that polls do not capture the full picture, so the election structure warrants close study. Many voters traditionally aligned with PiS are today reluctant to express support for any party or have retreated into apathy for various reasons. This group could return to backing PiS, even though they currently sit in the waiting room. The potential for PiS remains greater than what polls predict.

– he stated.

“Merely listing the support says nothing.”

The daily asked Maliszewski about DGP election simulations showing the entire opposition, excluding the Confederacy, winning roughly half of the vote in different configurations. Maliszewski responded that simply tallying support does not determine outcomes. He argued that, as before the 2019 European Parliament elections, there is a certain “survey bonus” often earned by new political movements. He emphasized that this bonus tends to fade and that forming joint lists and presenting a concrete program remains essential. He also pointed to visible disputes between Donald Tusk and Szymon Hołownia.

PiS’ goal is to “repeat the result of 2019.”

The analyst suggested that a stable 40 percent backing would be challenging yet achievable. The party believes that voter loyalty in its ranks has not shifted dramatically. Improved economic conditions, even as inflation remains elevated, are expected to positively influence public mood. PiS continues to be perceived as a party with strong ties to ordinary people.

– he added.

When asked what outcome PiS aims to achieve, Maliszewski reiterated that the objective is to repeat the 2019 result. The presence of strong polarization makes attracting new voters particularly difficult, he noted.

“Clear manipulation and attempt to demobilize voters.”

According to the head of the Government Analysis Center, if PiS were to lose, the opposition would appear to be repeating a pattern from earlier defeats, and some observers might interpret the scenario as a sign of inevitable loss. Anticipating the outcome far ahead of the election is seen as a tactic to demobilize voters, Maliszewski warned.

He clarified that while a definite win in the autumn is not guaranteed, the narrative of an imminent opposition victory is premature. The DGP interlocutor noted a modest uptick in PiS support in polls, attributing it to wallet voters who respond to favorable economic signals and later reappear in surveys. Early on in the conflict in Ukraine, PiS enjoyed a surge in support, a phenomenon described as the flag effect. The return of undecided and passive voters, rather than shifts from other parties, contributed to this rise, he explained.

Changes to the Electoral Act

Asked about proposed changes to the electoral law, Maliszewski said the focus was on measures to boost turnout. The state should facilitate voting for the elderly and people with disabilities, he argued. Delivery ideas could draw on experiences from vaccination campaigns, noting that polls indicate Poles respond positively to such initiatives.

Why implement changes now rather than last year? The interlocutor suggested that the current government period has presented a very difficult environment, including war, a pandemic, and inflation. The window for proactive turnout efforts has opened in this context, he reasoned.

“Security, Credibility, Wallets”

Maliszewski argued that PiS can sustain existing social programs while crafting new ones amid tough conditions, including challenges around coal and energy prices. He predicted that the campaign would be guided by three pillars for both sides: security, credibility, and wallets. Campaigns will target concrete problems with precise solutions rather than broad, vague promises.

PiS is shown as a credible party that understands people well and offers ideas that address important social issues without excessive costs, he asserted. The importance of credibility remains central to how the party is viewed by voters.

The material also touched on related commentary about party dynamics and polling signals, reflecting the broader political discourse surrounding Poland’s electoral landscape.

Source: wPolityce