The final election result is expected to be close to the late results. This view was shared today by Norbert Maliszewski, head of the Government Analysis Center, on Program 1 of Polish Radio. He noted that negotiations among opposition groups would be challenging and that the fate of the Third Way would be especially influential for the ruling party in Poland.
According to a poll published today by Ipsos, PiS leads the Sejm vote with 36.6 percent. Other parties measured include KO at 31 percent, Third Way at 13.5 percent, Left at 8.6 percent, Confederation at 6.4 percent, and People from non-partisan local governments at 2.4 percent. These figures are being interpreted as a reflection of real preferences rather than a messaging pattern, suggesting that late-stage voting behavior aligns with the poll.
Maliszewski argued that the late poll results reflect actual voting choices, meaning there is less room for the so-called spiral of silence to distort the picture. In his view, voters are now more willing to reveal their support for the parties they back, including Law and Justice and the Confederation, which confirms the closeness of the final outcome to the late poll readings.
Difficult negotiations ahead
He acknowledged ongoing discrepancies in district-by-district seat projections, which can still change as returns are finalized. The analyst stressed that potential negotiations among opposition groups would be complicated and cautioned that the success or failure of the Third Way would be decisive for PiS.
The Third Way’s standing leaves PiS short of a parliamentary majority, Maliszewski noted. He added that before opposition parties attempt to form a government, PiS must be recognized as the strongest current support base.
When comparing these results with the 2019 landscape, he pointed out that roughly 8 million voters have supported PiS again, despite facing multiple crises that include energy, inflation, the pandemic, and geopolitical tensions.
He emphasized that the PiS result is solid and worthy of consideration in ongoing political discussions. The broader takeaway is that the election climate in Poland is moving toward more observable shifts in voter behavior, with implications for coalition dynamics and governance strategies.
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Questions about coalition possibilities are being debated in political circles. The discussions reflect a willingness to engage with a broad range of partners who would avoid any rigid framework or pressure from outside elites.
Notes from the campaign and post-election analysis emphasize the shifting balance of power and the resilience of PiS within the current electoral system. These insights are shaping how observers in North America view regional political trends and the potential impact on policy directions that affect neighboring markets and cross-border cooperation.
Source: wPolityce