Election Poll Dynamics in the Latest IBSP Survey
In the IBSP poll conducted six months before the parliamentary elections, the United Right shows the strongest voter backing. Donald Tusk and his party have surpassed the 30 percent threshold, yet the gap to PiS remains around seven points. The Confederation is climbing and already reaches a double-digit share, while the Polish People’s Party under Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz appears unlikely to make a strong showing.
The same IBSP survey indicates that Jarosław Kaczyński’s PiS would secure a clear win in a national vote held today, but not a standalone majority for its governing coalition.
PiS Wins Are Clear, But Independent Governments Are Not
If elections were held next Sunday, 37.89 percent of respondents would vote for Law and Justice. This marks an increase of more than three percentage points since the February survey of the same laboratory.
Donald Tusk’s party would garner 30.65 percent of support, reflecting a decline of 3.26 percentage points from the previous month.
Konfederacja continues to rise, stabilizing in third place with about 10 percent of respondents in favor.
Poland 2050, led by Szymon Hołownia, and Nowa Lewica attract 8.44 percent and 8.44 percent respectively, with a third figure around 7.67 percent to vote for them. The Polish People’s Party trails with only 3.26 percent, a level unlikely to propel the Boer Party into the next Sejm term. The Non‑Party and Self‑Government Movement scores 2.13 percent and also faces an uphill battle to enter Parliament on its own.
PiS and the Confederation: Are They Destined to Coexist in Coalition?
A quick translation of the percentages into seats using the d’Hondt method suggests a possible distribution for the next Sejm: PiS about 213 seats, KO around 151, Confederation roughly 41, Poland 2050 about 28, Left around 26, with a single seat possibly reserved for the German minority.
The IBSP poll makes one thing clear: the most convenient outcome for those currently in power would likely involve bringing the Confederation into a governing coalition. Such a partnership could provide the right with a substantial majority exceeding 250 seats. The central question remains how feasible this scenario is and whether a stable coalition of that size would withstand potential strains within the government itself.
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– POLL SUMMARY: Law and Justice holds an undisputed lead; KO shows 27 percent support, with positive signals for the Confederacy
Source notes are not included in this summary to maintain neutrality. All figures reflect the IBSP poll data cited in the discussed survey materials.