The Confederacy continues to hold a strong position in the polls for another week, according to a study conducted by Social Changes for the wPolityce.pl portal. The survey shows support at 14 percent, positioning the party led by Mentzen, Bosak, and Braun as the third force in the political landscape. The wPolityce.pl outlet consulted Prof. Henryk Domański, a sociologist with the Polish Academy of Sciences, to shed light on the trend.
Where does the current level of support for the Confederacy originate?
The expert notes that no dedicated research has yet addressed this specific question, but ongoing observations suggest the Confederacy is gaining momentum on issues related to Ukraine, a factor appearing decisive to voters.
A considerable portion of Polish society holds a negative view of the benefits Ukrainians receive from the Polish state. Respondents say these benefits appear to come at Poland’s expense, and many feel the government has intervened unnecessarily without yielding benefits in return. The Confederacy has been vocal in criticizing the Ukrainian situation and what it terms a “privileged position,” a stance the party has not hesitated to publicly advance.
As noted by Prof. Domański, the rise in support for the Confederacy appears to come at the expense of the Law and Justice electorate, shifting some voters away from PiS toward the new alternative.
A deeper look into public opinion reveals a large share of respondents who worry about Ukraine-related policies and their impact on Poland. The Confederacy’s emphasis on national sovereignty and self-reliance resonates with voters who perceive the party as willing to challenge the status quo. This dynamic is shaping the electoral map and influencing how other factions position themselves in response.
The sociologist also points out the potential implications of the Confederacy remaining independent rather than forming coalitions. A significant portion of the electorate seems to prefer a party free from entanglements with established coalitions, interpreting independence as a signal of commitment to Polish interests and practical governance without compromising on core issues.
According to the survey conducted for the wPolityce.pl portal, 47 percent of respondents believe the Confederacy is unlikely to join any coalition, while 40 percent foresee a coalition with PiS and 13 percent anticipate collaboration with KO. Prof. Domański notes that public recognition of this issue is high and acknowledges that an autonomous Confederacy may have strategic advantages in the current political climate.
Polish voters often see Konfederacja as a party that can act without being pulled into the compromises that typically accompany coalition governments. The party’s emphasis on independence is viewed by many as a strength that could translate into greater flexibility in pursuing its political agenda, provided it remains detached from broader alliance pressures.
Such perceptions underscore the delicate balance the Confederacy must maintain: remaining independent while considering practical opportunities that could emerge from a shifting parliamentary landscape. The sociologist’s assessment highlights how specific stances on national issues and independence messaging can shape not only support levels but also strategic choices about potential partnerships in cabinets and legislatures.
These dynamics come against the backdrop of debates over Ukraine policy and related national priorities. The Confederacy’s approach to these topics continues to distinguish it from other main actors on the scene and reinforces its appeal to a segment of voters who value a strong stance on sovereignty and a straightforward, unapologetic political voice.