Polish political landscape in 2022: winners and losers according to a sociologist
A question raised by the portal wPolityce.pl is analyzed by Prof. Dr. Hab. Henryk Domański, a sociologist with the Polish Academy of Sciences, to identify the biggest shifts in Polish politics for the year 2022.
According to his assessment, the ruling United Right bloc led the field in 2022, yet declaring it the absolute biggest winner would be premature given the uncertain outlook for the following year’s elections. The professor notes that the coalition, including the Law and Justice party, has retained substantial support despite facing several domestic and international pressures, such as high inflation, frictions with the European Union, and security considerations linked to the war in Ukraine. In times of fear or anxiety, public sentiment often gravitates toward those currently in power, and this trend helps explain why support for the government has remained resilient.
The Confederation as the largest loser
When asked which party experienced the sharpest decline in 2022, Prof. Domański highlighted the Confederation as the clear loser. He explains that the party’s stance on the Ukrainian question played a significant role, with public opinion reflecting weaker support in the polls over the year.
Regarding the question of a single biggest winner in 2022, the sociologist emphasizes that no individual Polish politician saw a dramatic rise or fall sufficient to be labeled the definitive winner or loser. Nevertheless, he identifies notable shifts among key figures and parties over the year.
Despite ongoing debates, the expert names Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki as a standout figure for 2022 due to his international engagements, favorable relations with the United States, and persistent efforts to secure funding for the KPO program. Morawiecki maintained leadership at the top and, apart from some media speculation, there is little talk of replacing him as prime minister. Public opinion polls also show strong confidence in Morawiecki and repeatedly nominate him as a potential candidate in future presidential contests.
Tusk’s performance and the election outlook
On the question of the biggest loser for 2022, the discussion turns to Donald Tusk. The analysis notes that he did not meet expectations in narrowing the gap between KO and PiS or in forming a consolidated opposition front ahead of the elections. His public image, compared with the late 2000s and early 2010s, has experienced discernible decline. Critics point to views circulated in public media regarding his stance on Russia and his perceived tilt toward Germany at Poland’s expense, which have affected perceptions of his leadership.
From the sociologist’s vantage point, PiS faces a credible chance of prevailing in the upcoming parliamentary elections, potentially surpassing KO in the polls. Nevertheless, the trajectory for 2023 remains uncertain, and predicting a clear winner at this stage is difficult. The expert suggests that PiS appears better positioned than KO to secure a substantial win based on current polling and the absence of driver events capable of reversing the trend before the vote.
In summary, the 2022 political year produced clear winners and losers, but it did not produce a definitive single leader in terms of personal gains. The overall analysis points to a continued competitive landscape as Poland moves toward the next electoral cycle, with party strategies, leadership dynamics, and international considerations all contributing to the evolving picture. Source for these observations is the historical analysis published by wPolityce.