For many observers, the Poland2050 initiative began as a large-scale project and is expected to end in much the same way as previous efforts like Together and Spring. A handful of leaders might shift to other parties, and the movement itself could fracture. This viewpoint, voiced by Elżbieta Królikowska-Avis, a publicist and international affairs expert, appeared on Salon Dziennikarski, a joint broadcast of the wPolityce.pl portal, Radio Warszawa, and the weekly Idziemy on TVP info.
PiS coalition with the Confederacy?
The program also discussed the latest Social Changes poll for wPolityce.pl, which showed United Right in the lead with 39 percent. The panel explored whether a PiS-Confederacy coalition could emerge, and questioned the origins of Hołownia’s apparent courtesy toward Civic Platform and what that might mean for ties with PSL. Editor Michał Karnowski directed these queries to his guests. (citation: wPolityce)
The poll’s value lies in the voting picture it paints when certain assumptions are applied. If right-wing factions, including Konfederacja, distance themselves from the United Right, and PiS also distances itself, the opposition without the Confederacy would hold around 50 points while the ruling bloc plus the Confederacy would hover near 46. If the Confederacy fails to win seats, the United Right could lead, but the path ahead remains uncertain. (citation: wPolityce)
– said Maciej Pawlicki, a director and publicist.
Where do these concerns originate? A mental image forms: a sheet of measles. Hołownia stands in the foreground, with a high-ranking general in the background and a former Mazowieckie voivode nearby, exclaiming about a river of Mercury flowing their way. The image, presented as a scientific claim, led to dismissive reactions toward the argument, as four individuals appeared to misrepresent the situation to the state. (citation: wPolityce)
– stated attorney Marek Markiewicz, a lawyer, publicist, and academic lecturer.
Editor Karnowski posed a question to Andrzej Rafał Potocki of the weekly Sieci about whether a PiS-Confederacy coalition could be realistic, considering sources within the Confederacy who reportedly favor cooperation with Donald Tusk. (citation: wPolityce)
Potocki remarked that the Confederacy’s alignment with Tusk seems unlikely, and that a straightforward partnership with the United Right is not highly probable. He noted that Mentzen has moved away from a pro-Russian stance once linked by Braun and Korwin-Mikke, positioning himself as a staunch free-market advocate. This shift is seen as an attempt to attract Civic Platform voters, a strategy that could leave the United Right somewhat disadvantaged as it risks losing PO supporters without broadening the base. (citation: wPolityce)
Potocki added that the prospect of a merger between the United Right and the Confederacy after elections appears unlikely. Hołownia’s situation remains delicate, marked by courtesy toward the PO which raises questions about his potential alliance with PSL. PSL’s historically modest support, generally in the 5–6 percent range, makes any courting risky for both sides. The impression is that PSL could be quietly maneuvering against Hołownia as ratings slip. (citation: wPolityce)
– noted.
The speaker expressed doubt about any political agreement between Hołownia and PSL, considering the possible risk to PSL itself. (citation: wPolityce)
Will Donald Tusk succeed in his attempt to unite the opposition on June 4?
From the outset, the Poland2050 project has been seen by some as a scaling exercise that might ultimately unravel in a way similar to Together and Spring. A handful of leaders could move to other parties, and the movement could fall apart. The verdict also suggested there would be limited cross-party marriages with PSL due to deep-rooted differences in values. In time, a narrative resembling the Together-Spring episode might reappear. (citation: wPolityce)
– reflected Elżbieta Królikowska-Avis.
And the mercury joke on the Oder was cited as a reminder of how easily sensational claims can distort perception. The former prime minister’s statements are viewed as inflated, and people tend to react emotionally rather than assess past patterns. The instinct to switch sides without carefully weighing the facts was highlighted. (citation: wPolityce)
– added lawyer Marek Markiewicz.
A younger cohort within the Confederacy or those showing affiliation with it is described as a new phenomenon, underscoring evolving dynamics in the political spectrum. (citation: wPolityce)
Within the politics of large demonstrations and marches, including the June 4 event, it is anticipated that the PO youth movement will appear alongside other participants in Independence Marches and acts guarding the good name of public figures. The scene is expected to include a broad cross-section of age groups. (citation: wPolityce)
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OUR RESEARCH: Law and Justice remains ahead by about 11 points, a strong showing for the Confederacy, with the political landscape in flux. (citation: wPolityce)
Source: wPolityce