The recent poll results from the Social Changes studio, commissioned by the wPolityce.pl portal, show a notable shift in the political landscape. In a hypothetical Sunday vote, the United Right leads with support around 37 percent, the Civic Coalition follows at about 30 percent, and the Confederacy stands at roughly 14 percent. The Left trails with around 9 percent, Poland 2050 sits near 5 percent, PSL at 3 percent, and Kukiz’15 at about 1 percent. These figures reflect a moment when holiday-time disengagement can influence public opinion and polling dynamics. (Source: wPolityce)
Marek Grabowski, head of the studio Social Changes, observed that holidays often provide a pause from political messaging and that this break can affect how people respond to surveys. He noted that for the Confederacy’s electorate, the actions and rhetoric of Janusz Korwin-Mikke could dampen enthusiasm. In polling terms, Grabowski suggested that the larger parties might capitalize on a temporary advantage, while smaller players could find it harder to convert high poll numbers into steady, sustainable support. (Source: wPolityce)
The question raised by analysts is whether an uptick for the Confederacy signals a warning for the major players or simply another stage in a volatile campaign cycle. It is said that declaring support in a poll is easier than maintaining momentum in real elections, where strong organizations tend to secure influence at the expense of fluctuating contenders. (Source: wPolityce)
To whom will the Confederacy give power?
Cezary Kristop was asked who the Confederacy might empower if it were to lead the formation of a governing coalition. His assessment suggested that no single party appears ready to rule alone under current conditions. He speculated that the Confederacy could seek a majority share if the trend persists, but appeared to believe that the party would avoid making sweeping, separate deals. A possible arrangement might see the Confederacy support a PiS minority government, given PiS holds the presidency, potentially helping to balance governance without creating a rigid, permanent alliance. (Source: wPolityce)
Marek Grabowski added that the available data indicate older Confederacy voters view elections as a contest for power. An early vote could disappoint supporters who hoped the Confederacy would advance specific demands, underscoring how timing can influence turnout and expectations. (Source: wPolityce)
Mentzen as a bridesmaid
Piotr Semka observed that Slawomir Mentzen has been consolidating the Confederation by removing controversial figures from nomination lists. Yet, the party faces a paradox. Mentzen appears reluctant to publicly reveal his preferred coalition partners, which some interpret as a cautious, trial-the-water approach. When party members vocalize dissatisfaction with PiS, intense passion meets a more measured, paper-supported stance when Mentzen himself expresses reservations about Donald Tusk. This tension between rhetoric and strategic positioning has become noticeable in political discourse. (Source: wPolityce)
Analysts note that the Confederation’s internal dynamics often reflect a broader pattern: harsh criticism toward established rivals can be followed by more tempered public signals. The overall effect is a political reality in which fresh status is earned through consistent actions rather than dramatic statements. The central question remains whether Mentzen is prepared to navigate this evolving landscape and lead a coalition that can withstand scrutiny from voters who demand clear, credible plans. (Source: wPolityce)
Insights from the latest research point to a persistent strength for the Confederation, even as the party faces scrutiny over its lineup and strategic choices. Commentators highlight that while some voters remain dissatisfied with traditional parties, the path to durable governance requires steadier messaging and a credible, deliverable agenda. The conversation continues as observers weigh how a potential alliance structure could influence future policy directions. (Source: wPolityce)
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Source: wPolityce