“I think that the voters of the parties that form the current coalition are satisfied that there has been a change of power, but they also hope that the government will finally take a strategic and programmatic path, that is, that we can expect something new. and positive from this government, and here it appears that they are not offering anything, they are just holding PiS accountable and making new excuses for this. It seems that they cannot afford anything else,” said Prof. in an interview with wPolityce.pl. Henryk Domański, sociologist from the Polish Academy of Sciences.
wPolityce.pl: Do you think that strong support for the parties of the current ruling coalition will remain high? I also ask this in the context of the fact that after the first hundred days of the new government, almost none of the hundred specific things announced by KO in the election campaign have been implemented, but several elements are being implemented that can be jointly described as calling PiS to account, or as some say, outright revenge on PiS. Moreover, the takeover of various institutions is borderline legal and, according to some lawyers, even illegal.
Prof. Henryk Domanski: Here, nothing has actually changed in terms of support for political parties now and before the elections, with the exception of the Third Way, for which support is declining. What is happening now is therefore more a defense of the status quo that emerged after the elections. Therefore, it is difficult to talk about any success of the current government. Especially since PiS has returned to first place in the polls in the past 2-3 weeks. I say this based on 3 recent studies and it’s hard to believe these are coincidental results. Moreover, if you follow CBOS announcements, where respondents are asked which direction the situation in the country is going, how do you rate this government, etc., the ratings for the current government have dropped. Therefore, the latest results show that we are facing signs of impatience and discouragement towards the current government.
Even if some polls show that PiS is currently ahead of KO, PiS formally won the last elections, but not practically. All recent polls indicate that if elections were held now, the parties of the current ruling coalition would again win them together.
Yes, of course this coalition would win again. However, now – in a relatively short period of time – we are dealing with certain rifts within the ruling coalition, and the examples could be many more. I think that the voters of the parties that form the current coalition are satisfied that there has been a change of power, but they also hope that the government will finally take a strategic and programmatic path, that is, that we can expect something new. and positive from this government, and here it appears that they are not offering anything, they are just holding PiS accountable and making new excuses for this. It’s like they can’t afford anything else.
Or is it perhaps possible to operate according to this principle for four years and still maintain a high level of support? Jan Grabiec, head of the Prime Minister’s Office, posted a short message on the X platform: “There are specifics.” when the services entered the houses of politicians of Sovereign Poland, so probably in reference to these events. The question is whether such details, that is, the constant responsibility of PiS politicians for four years, will be enough to win the next elections?
In my opinion this is not enough. Referring to these searches of the houses of politicians of Sovereign Poland, people generally do not like such burglaries. Later, Zbigniew Ziobro’s speech took place, which was quite dramatic. If this were to intensify even further, and several such appointments were to overlap, for example also for the president of the NBP, support for KO would fall almost to the level of the SLD in 2004. I say this a bit jokingly, but I think something is starting to function in the minds of the voters of the current coalition parties, that they expected something different, something specific, which is reflected in our living conditions. Announcements about, for example, that the tax-free amount will not be increased…
This was one of the most famous of the 100 KO specifications. The tax-free amount would be PLN 60,000. zloty. This was not implemented this year and Finance Minister Andrzej Domański confirmed that it will not happen next year either.
Yes, and this is something specific that appeals to people. They may also soon ban internal combustion engine cars from entering city centers. There may be growing doubt among the electorate that there are too many settlements.
Apparently, however, internal KO research or research commissioned by the government must show that such a course towards PiS settlements is electorally profitable. If it were otherwise, course would likely be changed and these activities would immediately cease.
If this were the case, the course would probably change in such a direction that the current coalition would collapse, and I am thinking mainly of the departure of the Third Way, because the left is doing everything it can to stay with KO, but I think also don’t think it will last all the time. Among the parties that form the current coalition, there are increasing signs of different worldviews and programmes, and the issue of abortion is a classic example. On the other hand, the coalition parties are doing everything they can to put a good face on the bad game. They emphasize that their demands have not been met, that there are contradictions with what KO wants, but that under no circumstances will they leave the coalition. No statement has yet been made that we will leave the coalition, if this does not happen, then this and that…
During the Third Way Convention, Szymon Hołownia timidly issued an ultimatum: it means that either the rules for collecting health insurance premiums from entrepreneurs will change, or the Third Way will not be in the coalition.
You can also imagine that PSL will take a position on issues related to farmers’ interests, for example grain imports from Ukraine, when it comes to issues related to the Green Deal. At this point it is worth taking into account that such demonstrations as those of the current farmers, blocking roads throughout the country, have not taken place in Poland for a long time. Public opinion is becoming increasingly aware that Donald Tusk will in fact pursue the interests of the European Union and will not hold back the Green Deal. This is another factor that discourages the current government.
Do you think that PiS can win even more elections, because there are even voices that claim that this party will now only face further defeats? And above all, does he have a real chance of winning the next presidential and parliamentary elections?
PiS will win the elections if two conditions are met. First, PiS must regain its coalition capabilities. If PiS does not find a coalition partner, that is, does not gain anything from the current governing coalition, it will not take power. Secondly, PiS must change its image as an archaic party not adapted to reality, including Jarosław Kaczyński as someone who should resign. In my opinion, the creation of some adapted PiS led by a younger generation of politicians, I mean, first of all, President Andrzej Duda after leaving office, and secondly, Mateusz Morawiecki, the creation of a new image of this party, are enough to return to support of more than 40 percent. In summary: a change in image, a change in PiS leadership and a consolidation of public awareness that PiS is capable of forming a coalition with anyone.
When it comes to the generational change of the PiS leadership, are you also talking about the change of the party chairman? For now, Jarosław Kaczyński has announced that he is running for a new term as PiS president.
Originally it would not start, the situation is dynamic and it is possible that it will not start after all. This change should happen because Jarosław Kaczyński will not change PiS’s image for several reasons; he simply cannot.
Many people in PiS probably won’t like your opinion.
I don’t hide my opinion on this. This is not just my opinion, there are other people in Poland who think the same.
You said that Andrzej Duda and Mateusz Morawiecki may be responsible for this generational change. However, recently there was a powerful speech by Patryk Jaki, a MEP from Sovereign Poland, who strongly criticized the actions of both politicians, sparking a dispute within the United Right…
However, Patryk Jaki eventually withdrew from this. His words were simply a sign of the need for change I was just talking about. However, every effort is being made to maintain consolidation within the United Right. There are no signs of dissolution and disintegration in PiS as was the case after the 2011 elections.
Source: wPolityce