PiS has the potential of about a million voters in the so-called waiting room for the indecisive and passive people, but also a chance to govern independently – says the head of the Government Analysis Center, Norbert Maliszewski, in an interview with PAP. He adds that changes in polls after the Oct. 1 march are not statistically significant for KO.
Donald Tusk spoke during a meeting with the residents of Rzeszów (Podkarpackie Voivodeship) about the results of the internal KO survey, which was conducted after Sunday’s “Million Hearts March”.
The PO leader also published the results of this research on the website X (formerly Twitter).
On the last part. We have them! Test on a sample of 1,500 after the March: PiS 34.3; KO 33.6; Left 11.3; Confederation 8.8; Third Way 8.6
– wrote the Platform Leader.
The head of the Government Analysis Center, Norbert Maliszewski, Secretary of State at the Prime Minister’s Chancellery, pointed out in an interview with PAP that publishing internal opinion polls is a manipulation of public opinion, which – in his opinion – is the domain According to Donald Tusk, social engineering is part of his political system, and its publication is socially irresponsible.
Maliszewski admitted that some media are building a narrative about the effect of Tusk’s march, namely the Million Hearts March – a demonstration of opposition supporters that passed through Warsaw on October 1.
The changes in the polls are, as far as the Civic Coalition is concerned, statistically insignificant and serve to build a narrative of a breakthrough not observed in the survey. The proof is the poll average published by the liberal website Politico, in which KO still does not exceed the 30 percent ceiling
– he said.
There are leaks about internal surveys, and this is an attempt to exert influence based on research with an unknown method, possibly so-called “sponsor effect”, or preceded by questions that would lead to a favorable outcome for PO
– he pointed.
“PiS research is underestimated”
As Maliszewski said: “There are again strong claims that there is little chance of a third term for PiS, and there are at least two realistic scenarios that contradict this.”
One is that PiS is underestimated in research due to the fact that it is more difficult for research studios to reach part of the electorate, for example from smaller cities or towns, and also because of the spiral of silence, i.e. not admitting of political preferences that are not popular in the mainstream media, and the strong disagreement with the forced allocation of quotas to illegal migrants is one of the topics considered ‘politically incorrect’ in liberal circles.
– he said.
The second scenario is related to the polarization of the political scene at the very end of the campaign. The result of the Third Way and the Left, but also of the Confederation, could be lower than in the polls
– designates the head of RCA.
Let’s not forget that there are last-minute voters and even if a story were told by the opposition and in the media that was favorable to them, it would serve to build support for the Third Way, because people realized that not exceeding the electoral threshold of this formation brings Law and Justice closer with ten seats. To govern independently, voters vote for the leaders, i.e. PiS or KO
– he pointed.
Law and Justice has the potential of about a million voters in the so-called waiting room of the undecided and passive. If voting were compulsory, they would choose Law and Justice, but they are still hesitant or not fully convinced to participate in the elections. This may change in the final days of the campaign
– added the head of RCA.
As Maliszewski estimates, “Law and Justice have the opportunity to rule on their own.”
Strong work on the ground is needed, it is necessary to mobilize people from the waiting room and those who are indecisive and passive, and not succumb to the opposition’s manipulations. As Law and Justice, we count on a march not on October 1 and not on a million or actually much fewer people, but on 8 million patriots on October 15, because that is what ultimately counts.
– added.
There will be parliamentary elections on October 15. Poland will elect 460 deputies and 100 senators for four-year terms.
tkwl/PAP
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Source: wPolityce