If the elections were to take place next Sunday, PiS would get 35.1 percent. votes, and KO – 27 percent. The stage would be closed by Third Road, for which 10.4 percent want to vote. subjects. The left would also enter the Sejm with 10.1 percent. votes and Confederation with 9.5 percent. – according to the IBRiS survey for Onet.
As Onet.pl writes, 61.1% of people indicate that they participate in voting. respondents, including 49.8 percent “certainly,” and 11.6 percent “prefer.” 37.4% would not vote, including 21.9%. “absolutely not”, and 15.5 percent “I don’t think so”.
Law and Justice would receive the most support with 35.1 percent. PiS would be followed by KO with 27%. to vote. This means an advantage of 8 percentage points for the ruling party over KO.
Law and Justice keep the Civic Coalition at bay
– comments on the portal.
The poll podium with the support of 10.4 percent. is closed by the Third Way, i.e. the coalition of the Polish People’s Party and Poland 2050. The next place would be the left with 10.1 percent. support. The Confederation would also enter the Sejm with a result of 9.5%. Non-party Samorządowcy (2%) and Polska Jest Jedno (0.3%) would be below the electoral threshold.
The answer ‘I don’t know/difficult to say’ was given by 5.6 percent. respondents, which – as the portal highlights – is the biggest change compared to the previous survey, when the number of undecided respondents increased by 3.5 percentage points. more.
Onet’s calculations based on the IBRiS survey show that the distribution of seats in the Sejm would be as follows: PiS – 195, KO – 150, Trzecia Droga – 41, Left – 38, Konfederacja – 35, German minority – 1
– we are reading.
As the portal notes, this means that PiS would not be able to govern on its own.
Furthermore, the party would not be able to continue its rule with the participation of the Confederacy. Both parties would have 230 seats, and the minimum parliamentary majority is 231 votes. It would be necessary to seek supporters among other forces in the current opposition
– emphasizes onet.pl.
KO, Third Road and Links would together have 229 seats. Therefore, the theoretical opportunity to form a government is the participation of a representative of the German minority and one of the representatives of the Confederation.
– adds the portal.
“You can see this mythical ceiling of support.”
Prof. Rafał Chwedoruk noted in an interview with Onet that “PiS managed to stop the decline associated with this formation for almost its entire duration.”
The campaign resulted in a slight increase of 2-3 percentage points. This mythical support ceiling is visible
– emphasized the political scientist.
The Civic Coalition is still at the average level, much lower than the June records, but comparable to the size of support from the last elections
– added.
Chwedoruk pointed out that the possible success of Sunday’s Million Heart March could influence the results of the Third Way and Links.
According to Onet.pl, the survey was conducted on September 27, 2023 by the Institute for Market and Social Research (IBRiS) among a national sample of 1,000. people by telephone, standardized computer-assisted questionnaire interviews (CATI).
kk/PAP
Source: wPolityce