The latest polling snapshot released by the studio indicates a widening edge for the United Right over the Civic Coalition, with the left appearing more prominent on stage. Poland 2050 shows a softer performance than in recent months, while the Confederation remains markedly below its multi‑month average.
Within the survey, respondents expressing willingness to vote for Law and Justice and its coalition partners reached 37 percent, up by two percentage points from the prior wave. This movement suggests a consolidation of support around the governing bloc among a segment of voters that remains steady in its backing for the governing coalition.
The Civil Coalition sits at 29 percent among respondents, reflecting a two‑point decline from the previous measurement. This shift hints at a narrowing of the coalition’s lead and signals a phase of realignment as voters reassess party choices ahead of October elections.
The Left shows no net change, staying at 9 percent, while Poland 2050 drops to 7 percent, marking a two‑point decrease. The Confederation holds at 6 percent, remaining consistently lower than its longer‑term average and underscoring a period of struggle for the far‑right alliance to gain broader mass appeal.
The Polish People’s Party records 6 percent support, up by one point, indicating a modest uptick in affections toward a more traditional, agrarian‑oriented option among voters seeking alternative groupings.
Kukiz’15 remains at 2 percent, with no movement, which keeps the party in a small but persistent lane of the political spectrum. Agreement also stays at 1 percent, showing stability in the smaller share of the electorate that aligns with niche or regional platforms.
Meanwhile, the portion of respondents selecting “other group” rises from 2 percent to 3 percent, reflecting a growing fragmentation of the vote with more voters identifying as undecided or exploring non‑mainstream options.
The survey notes that the overall share of respondents explaining their voting intention is 61 percent, marking an uptick of three percentage points and suggesting a broader willingness to articulate a clear preference among the electorate.
In summary, the study asks: who will win power in the fall elections? The prevailing sentiment among Poles appears to favor PiS, with analysts emphasizing the importance of this indicator as a sign of potential electoral momentum. The finding is framed as a critical signal for political observers and party strategists alike, indicating where core support currently resides and how it might shift in the months ahead.
The research was conducted using CAWI methods (Computer Assisted Web Interview) over February 24 to 27, 2023. The online panel was nationwide and representative in terms of gender, age, and urban–rural distribution. A total of 1,052 individuals participated in the study, providing a snapshot of voters’ attitudes during that period.
For readers seeking context, these results are framed within an ongoing assessment of party preferences as the political calendar progresses toward the upcoming elections, with consideration given to the volatility observed in party coalitions and the potential impact of policy debates on voter choice. This broader context is essential for interpreting the shifts in support among the electorate and for understanding how parties might reposition themselves in response to the evolving political landscape.
In conclusion, the data outlined here highlight a landscape where governing parties maintain a lead, opposition formations experience modest retrenchment, and fringe or smaller parties show continuity or slight gains. Analysts would advise watching the movements in the 29 percent share for the Civil Coalition, the 7 percent for Poland 2050, and the 6 percent for both the Confederation and the Polish People’s Party as potential indicators of strategic pressure points in the run‑up to the ballots. The dynamic nature of these percentages underscores the importance of ongoing polling to map the evolving preferences of Poland’s voting public.
Notes: Poll details and methodology are summarized to provide context for interpreting the data and its implications for Poland’s fall elections. This overview is intended to help readers understand the current distribution of support among major political actors and the evolving landscape of party competition, with ongoing updates anticipated as new waves of polling become available.