The latest period has seen Confederation rise as the standout phenomenon in Polish politics. This bloc has clearly placed itself on the podium, ahead of other centrist players in recent polling cycles. In the cyclical rankings published by the portal wPolityce.pl, the party led by Mentzen, Bosak, and Braun maintained a 14 percent indication for the second consecutive week, signaling a sustained surge rather than a temporary spike.
READ: OUR RESEARCH. The electoral dynamics show that Tusk’s attacks have not shifted the balance, and the KO has not managed to blunt Confederation’s momentum. The bloc remains a force to be reckoned with, while The Third Way has crossed the electoral threshold needed for coalition consideration.
What could Confederation do if the majority in the next Sejm hinges on its support? Will it seek a coalition with Law and Justice or oppose a potential alignment with the opposition bloc known as the Third Polish Republic? A study conducted for the portal wPolityce.pl offers some intriguing insights into this question, exploring voters’ expectations and the possible configurations after the upcoming elections.
The survey asked respondents to answer: which bloc would Confederation align with if its choice determined the majority in the Sejm after the next parliamentary elections?
The largest group, 47 percent, anticipated that Confederation would refrain from joining any governing coalition and would remain independent rather than entering a formal partnership. About 40 percent believed Confederation would become a coalition partner with Law and Justice. Another 13 percent thought it would support the government coalition known as the Civil Coalition.
The breakdown is particularly revealing. Among supporters of the United Right, 65 percent foresee Confederation aligning with Law and Justice. Supporters of the Citizen Coalition account for 56 percent, and those backing Poland 2050 register 51 percent in that same direction. Yet a substantial 71 percent of Confederation’s own voters still expect their party to stay independent in the next Sejm. This split reflects a broader tension within the bloc as it navigates the path to influence and governance while balancing its own ideological stance against the realities of coalition bargaining.
Such a stance could affect the credibility of party leadership if electoral support remains high until the vote. After the ballots are cast, the political landscape could shift quickly, and there will be temptations to share power, even if only indirectly. Internal disagreements, potential fissures, and the risk of splits are plausible scenarios for Confederation as the party expands its footprint and attempts to manage a larger caucus. A diverse federation can hold firm when it remains a tight-knit circle, but once it spans a broader bench with dozens of delegates, the complexity of consensus grows and the governance challenge intensifies.
READ: What do the polls show? Analysts note the distinctive rise in Confederation’s position. The coverage from Salon Dziennikarski has called attention to the party’s elevated standing and the potential for a formal warning or a yellow card if the trend continues unchecked.
The study was conducted using the CAWI method (Computer Assisted Web Interview) from June 30 to July 3, 2023, on an online panel. The sample was nationwide and designed to be representative in terms of gender, age, and place of residence. A total of 1,093 individuals participated in the survey. The data provide a snapshot of voter sentiment as the campaign period intensifies and parties outline their paths forward in the evolving political map of Poland.
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Source: wPolityce