The claim that voting for Law and Justice is a disgrace and that tradition is worthless is fading. It is seen as a meaningful message by Marek Grabowski of the Mum and Dad Foundation, who leads the Social Changes studio, speaking in Salon Dziennikarski and referencing party support polls.
If elections were held next Sunday, 39 percent would back the ZP, 27 percent the KO, 9 percent the left, and 8 percent the Confederacy. Poland 2050 would have 7 percent, and PSL 6 percent. Those who intend to participate in the election would shape these figures, according to a social change survey commissioned by the wPolityce.pl portal.
The United Right stood at 39 percent in the poll among those who planned to vote, up by two points from the late April survey. The Civic Coalition attracted 27 percent, down one point from before.
The left was at 9 percent, down one point; the Confederacy at 8 percent, down one point; Poland 2050 at 7 percent, unchanged; the Polish People’s Party at 6 percent, up one point; Kukiz’15 at 2 percent, unchanged; and 2 percent would vote for any other party. The turnout figure hovered at about 60 percent overall, with 46 percent saying they would definitely vote and 14 percent saying they would probably participate. The turnout estimate rose by two points, while 31 percent of respondents stated they would not go to the polls, including 17 percent who were certain they would not vote and 14 percent who were unsure. About 9 percent found it hard to say.
READ ALSO: OUR RESEARCH. PiS keeps its lead over KO at around 12 points. Support for the rest of the parties shows signs of stabilizing. RESULTS
Has the opposition missed its chance?
Grabowski noted that support for PiS and PO was nearly equal in major cities, a small edge for PiS in rural towns, and a strong influence from central hubs on overall sentiment. In large cities, about a third to a little more of residents would vote for PiS, which could energize the campaign. The narrative that voting for Law and Justice is disgraceful or that tradition is passé is losing traction, a point Grabowski emphasized as significant in times of national stress.
Piotr Semka added that the opposition squandered the window between January and May. He echoed coverage from Gazeta Wyborcza about the back-and-forth malice among Tusk, Hołownia, and the left, calling it a road to nowhere. The challenge now is whether to replace a leader, which would require a major upheaval and could stall the campaign. The Confederacy holds at around 8 percent. Minted dynamics from proponents like Winnicki and Bosak have shaped perceptions over the years, with Mentzen temporarily fading before rising again, a move some sources attribute to media influence. Hołownia and PSL sit around 13 percent, not far from the 8 percent threshold.
– Piotr Semka
Attempts to corner Hołownia
Marzena Nykiel described the broad opposition’s efforts to press on Szymon Hołownia, noting that the head of Poland 2050 has faced sustained attempts to corner him. The editor in chief of the wPolityce.pl portal argued that Hołownia appears weak in certain moments, especially when he reacts to constitutional debates or other political tensions.
– Dreams Nykiel
Polls suggest that regardless of actions by the PO, it struggles to gain traction. Izabela Leszczyna criticized trembling journalists, suggesting that if PO spent as much effort presenting a vision for Poland as they do on debates about a single letter and pending marches, polls might look different. The case is plain: a leader benefits from stability and security during dangerous times. The public seeks parties capable of delivering that steadiness. The opposition’s strength often hinges on public calm rather than agitation.
– Marzena Nykiel
Does TVN back the opposition?
Salon guests were asked about a wPolityce.pl survey asking whether TVN supports the opposition, particularly the Civic Platform. About 42 percent saw support, 28 percent disagreed, and 30 percent had no opinion. SEE ALSO: OUR RESEARCH. Does TVN mainly back the opposition, especially Civic Platform? Interesting results
Some liberal media outlets push certain narratives, shaping perceptions about the opposition. Observers note that Tusk has a candid style during public appearances but sometimes struggles to connect with voters when questions get tough. He has not presented a concrete program in response to recent challenges.
– Bogumił Łoziński
Poland faces a period of notable strain, with ongoing international tensions, the pandemic era memories, and inflation. Analysts argue this is not a time for complacency, and the country needs sound leadership that can handle tough circumstances. If the opposition gains power, there is debate about whether the national moment would unfold to Poland’s advantage or not.
READ ALSO:
– ONLY HERE. Minister Schreiber: We managed to get through this very difficult winter period and maintain the confidence of the Poles
– ONLY HERE. Professor Domański on the Social Changes poll regarding Tusk: the result reflects public disappointment with unkept promises
– ONLY HERE. Karczewski: The PSL and Poland 2050 coalition will not enter the Sejm. There is potential to attract voters away from the peasants
Source: wPolityce