May drought patterns and water concerns in Spain
As May arrives, Spanish reservoirs sit below half capacity, just as summer nears and rainfall becomes rarer. Some autonomous communities may still receive scattered showers, offering a glimmer of relief, but the big question remains: will it be enough to change the overall trend?
Meteorologist Mario Picazo outlined expectations for May on the eltiempo.es portal. He noted that the month may begin with rain in certain regions but without delivering the water volumes most affected areas desperately need. The recent stretch of unusually high temperatures observed in late April is likely to persist. These conditions set the stage for a potentially hot and dry late spring into summer (European Drought Observatory) — a challenge for agriculture and water resources across the peninsula.
Picazo shared a map from the European Drought Observatory on his Twitter account, illustrating the Iberian Peninsula’s current conditions for the near term. The map highlights widespread soil moisture deficits across much of Spain, with the southern half dotted by red zones indicating stress on vegetation. This visualization underscores the country as one of the regions most impacted by a lack of rainfall (European Drought Observatory).
Soil moisture deficit prevails in Spain
European Drought Observatory
“A hot summer with record temperatures”
The drought map reveals how dry the soil is in many parts of the country. If rains do not arrive by June, a water-stressed season could yield a scorching summer with frequent heat waves similar to 2022. This scenario adds to concerns about energy and water management during peak demand months.
Beyond the pressure systems at play near the surface, there is a growing pattern of ridges forming above the region. These atmospheric blocks funnel dry, intensely heated air and can create a stable, desiccated climate. In some cases, warm air even travels from North Africa, intensifying the dryness and temperature extremes.
The soil’s response to dryness matters. When the ground is dry, radiant energy from the sun tends to raise air temperatures rather than evaporate water from the soil, contributing to a feedback loop that sustains heat and water stress (European Drought Observatory).
Reservoirs will continue to decline if drought persists
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At the core of all these dynamics lies climate change. Global warming is linked to shifts in the Azores high-pressure system, with scientists noting that such systems have strengthened and moved northward over time. This shift helps explain more frequent heat events and drier spells across the region, contributing to longer, more intense drought cycles.
Looking ahead, the forecast hints at a stubborn trend toward a drier climate in Spain and other Mediterranean areas. The trajectory suggests reduced rainfall and longer dry periods, pushing water managers to adapt to a landscape where drought risk remains elevated (European Drought Observatory).
In summary, the outcome depends on how much greenhouse gas is released into the atmosphere. The extent of drought will correlate with global temperature rises above pre-industrial levels. More warming means more prolonged dry spells and more pressure on water resources in the Mediterranean basin (European Drought Observatory).
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