The North African grain harvest outlook is deteriorating due to drought, with high temperatures and minimal rainfall constraining production across a broad belt that stretches from Morocco through Algeria and into the northeastern and central regions of Tunisia. The latest English-language briefing from the European Union’s Joint Research Center highlights this delay in grain output, warning that drought could destabilize an already fragile market where basic food prices are elevated by inflation and rising costs of Ukrainian grain. Beyond crops, water scarcity threatens local supplies and, in turn, energy production and availability.
How this translates into economic impact is shaped by many factors, but it is clear that agriculture is affected and output declines are likely. The report cites Italian scientist Andrea Toreti, who led a European Commission study warning about the adverse weather event. Toreti notes that the southern Mediterranean experienced a similar drought in 2018, when compensatory mechanisms helped mitigate effects. The Maghreb region, with its relatively weaker institutional and economic ties, could see amplified consequences.
The drought’s reach extends beyond the Maghreb to the earthquake-affected Turkey and Syria, where more than 50,000 people were displaced by late February. This adds pressure on relief efforts and compounds the challenges faced by displaced and refugee communities in the region. Agricultural impact is expected to be most pronounced during the coming summer season.
During the winter, many parts of the Mediterranean were warmer and drier than in recent years, including sections of the Maghreb and Spain. This trend reduced soil moisture and disrupted river flows, with critical values reported in Tunisia, Algeria, and across Turkey. Morocco’s harvest fell far short of average for most wheat and barley crops, with projections showing decreases of about 24% to 15% for wheat and 30% to 10% for barley relative to the five-year average.
Algeria has announced measures to curb water use and curb waste, while Moroccan authorities face growing concerns about further precipitation declines in coming months. In Turkey, drought conditions are described as severe, and irrigation plans for the summer remain uncertain, especially as some reservoirs were damaged by the earthquake.
Data from Copernicus
The Joint Research Center provides real-time drought monitoring via the Global Drought Observatory in Europe. The team combines satellite imagery, hydrological models, and meteorological forecasting within the Copernican system to identify areas requiring heightened attention as drought intensifies. Since a heatwave preceded the current drought, maps have repeatedly highlighted the region as a priority for monitoring. The crop forecast has therefore deteriorated through mid-December.
Following a scorching 2022, the Mediterranean remains at risk of drought recurrence. In Spain, the State Meteorological Service forecast a warm spring following a mild winter that ended in drought conditions.
Urgent concern and mapping
The most troubling signal on the Copernicus maps centers on the Southern Mediterranean. The Combined Drought Indicator flags heightened risk across nearly all Maghreb regions, with red shading indicating critical stress in most areas, except for the Ceuta and Tetouan regions in Morocco, and the Melilla area and the adjacent Nador province near it. The report emphasizes that the primary task is to estimate potential impacts in order to prepare relief and implement risk-reduction strategies. If hot conditions persist across the Mediterranean and Europe into a protracted summer, the next weeks will be pivotal for mitigation.
Authorities stress immediate actions to lessen drought damage to soil, crops, and water reserves. The unfolding weather pattern could disproportionately affect vulnerable populations and agricultural livelihoods if the heat persists and if summer irrigation systems cannot meet demand, particularly in drought-prone zones.
Heat records and policy outlook
Global heat records underscore the influence of climate change, and scientists warn that conditions are likely to worsen. While drought is a major feature, more heatwaves, along with stronger storms and severe flooding, are expected as climate dynamics shift. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, meeting in Interlaken, has reinforced the goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius to avoid the most damaging effects, while stressing the need for rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Recent IPCC summaries describe how global temperatures could continue to rise if mitigation measures stall, potentially threatening biodiversity and coastal communities alike.
From now through 2030, greenhouse gas emissions would need to fall substantially below 2019 levels, with longer-term paths showing even deeper cuts by 2050. Projections warn that exceeding the 1.5 degree target could become a recurring risk, with implications for ecosystems and human societies. At a 1.5 degree rise, a notable share of terrestrial species could face extinction, and coral reefs in temperate zones would suffer under higher ocean temperatures. These dynamics would also affect aquaculture and fisheries worldwide. The IPCC emphasizes the broad and interconnected nature of these challenges, describing them as a fundamental test for governance and resilience. By mid-century, many coastal megacities and small island states are expected to confront extreme weather events with increasing frequency while global population centers adapt to new climate realities.
In this broader context, the report underscores that a significant portion of the global population remains highly vulnerable to heat, drought, and disease vectors, highlighting the urgency for adaptive measures and supportive policies that bolster resilience against mounting climate risks.