Autumn opens with a forecast of clearer skies and less rainfall across much of the peninsula, especially toward its center and west. Temperatures are expected to stay above normal for the season, continuing the pattern set by a summer noted for its exceptional heat and dryness.
Ruben Del Campo, spokesperson for the State Meteorological Agency, presented seasonal forecasts for autumn alongside an analysis of the recent summer. He indicated that October, November, and December are likely to be warmer than average across most of Spain, with the strongest warmth on the Mediterranean side and in the Balearic Islands. He warned that the hot trend could persist into the early months of the coming year. The outlook also suggested drier conditions for autumn, with rainfall becoming less frequent, particularly in the northwest of the peninsula.
Teresa Ribera, the Third Vice President and Minister of Ecological Transition, attended the briefing as a first-time participant. She highlighted the unusually hot and dry characteristics of this summer and stressed the importance of preparing for extreme weather events, noting that summers of this intensity could become more common later in the century.
According to the Aemet balance, the summer of 2022 registered the highest temperatures since records began in 1961, easily surpassing the previous peak in 2003. For example, there were 42 heat-wave days—almost half of the season—compared with the ten-year and long-term averages that were markedly lower. The season featured three distinct heat waves: the first from June 12 to 18, the second from July 9 to 26 spanning record durations and geographic reach, and the third from July 30 to August 15. Together, these events kept a vast portion of Spain under heat for much of the summer, exceeding the 2015 record for total heat-wave days.
In terms of average temperature, June through August averaged 24.2 degrees Celsius, about 2.2 degrees above the long-term normal. That made the summer exceptionally hot, surpassing the 2003 peak by a notable margin and marking it as the hottest on record in historical comparisons.
The country experienced a widespread heat-dominated pattern, with only coastal pockets in Galicia and Asturias, the western tip of Andalusia, and a few isolated zones escaping the extreme heat. The Balearic Islands saw Mallorca endure an extremely hot summer, while the other islands experienced very hot conditions; the Canary Islands generally faced very hot weather as well.
The accompanying photo captures a reservoir in Ávila, illustrating the context of water resources amid the season’s dryness.
From a meteorological perspective, the summer included three significant heat waves that reshaped the season’s profile. The first wave occurred in mid-June, the second was unusually prolonged and widespread into mid to late July, and the third extended into mid-August. In total, heat waves affected nearly half of the summer, pushing past the 2015 record for length. If historical data were complete, this summer would be placed among the most intense in a century.
Looking at precipitation, June and July were notably drought-like, with August bringing rainfall closer to normal yet still contributing to an overall dry trend. The Balearic Islands remained exceptionally dry, and the Canary Islands recorded unusually low rainfall, giving the season an overall arid character. The result was a meteorological drought that was most severe inland in the western and northern parts of the peninsula and contributed to a hydrological year with notably below-average precipitation—potentially among the driest on record.
Since the 1980s, summers in Spain have tended to last longer by about ten days each decade. This shift aligns with hot Mays and comparatively low precipitation, a pattern evident in 2022. A key indicator this summer was the unusually warm surface temperature of the western Mediterranean Sea, particularly between the peninsula and the Balearic Islands, remaining above normal since May and contributing to the overall heat intensity. Since early July, the region recorded the highest 5 percent of temperatures in its historical series, maintaining averages around 29 degrees Celsius into mid-August and setting a new benchmark for extreme warmth.
the summers get longer
In terms of field conditions, the dry spell dominated June and July, with August bringing rainfall that only partially offset the dryness. Overall, rainfall reached about 48 liters per square meter, roughly 35 percent below the historical average. The Balearic Islands experienced a very dry summer, while the Canary Islands saw relatively little rain, paradoxically contributing to a perception of humidity due to the surrounding dryness rather than rainfall. The extended dryness compounded water-resource concerns and underscored the ongoing drought across many inland basins.
Del Campo noted that Spain ended the summer in a drought phase, with the core impact felt inland in the western and northern zones. This trend feeds into a hydrological year that remains severely dry, with precipitation well below normal and the prospect of ranking among the three driest on record. The persistence of long, hot summers has also influenced the seasonal balance, with autumn expected to shoulder the consequences and spring likely to shift in duration due to the altered climate cycle. An important observation this summer was the consistently high surface temperatures in the western Mediterranean, maintaining a record-high stance from May onward and reinforcing the heat-dominated pattern across the region.
Overall, the events of the season underscored a climate pattern characterized by longer, hotter summers, reduced rainfall in many regions, and heightened vulnerability to extreme weather. The official assessments emphasize preparation and resilience as essential responses to these evolving conditions, with ongoing monitoring of temperature and precipitation trends across Spain and the Balearic Islands. Cited: Aemet