The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) projects that the summer of 2022 will likely be the hottest on record since the series began in 1961. Even when leveraging climate reconstructions from earlier data, it appears to be the warmest season observed at least since 1916, according to AEMET.
AEMET summarized this finding in an article published on its official blog and compiled by Europa Press. The piece notes that the current summer does not appear to have been surpassed by the hot summer of 1915, and that among the recorded record, there has not been a hotter spell in the last 106 years.
The article highlights that since records began, June ranks as the fourth-warmest month, July stands as the warmest month on record (even surpassing 2015), and the first half of August 2022 tracks as the second-warmest two-week period, only behind 2003. May in Spain also showed above-normal temperatures.
As a result, the May–July 2022 quarter, which includes one month of meteorological spring and two months of meteorological summer, was hotter than 60 percent of summers since 1961.
The summer heat is visually evident in a photo caption noting a stifling heat wave, with a caption credit to Pixabay.
During this season, Spain experienced several warm spells starting May 1, with brief but limited cold pockets, especially in the third decade of June. There was a mid-August cold episode, likely to end around August 19 or 20.
Three heat waves defined the summer. The first, beginning on June 11, matched the earliest such start on record with 1981. The second stood out for its intensity and geographical spread (affecting forty provinces in August 2012) and lasted eighteen days, making it the second-longest heat wave on record. Analyzing the May 1 to August 15 window across the historical series suggests that 2022 may be the warmest since at least 1950.
Dry conditions accompanied the heat: the May 1 to August 15 period marked the driest interval since at least 1950. The Mediterranean also recorded persistently hot surface waters, with temperatures remaining well above normal. Since July 12, these waters approached or exceeded historical extremes, raising the possibility of a marine heat wave when multiple days stay in the high range. Sea temperatures were often about 5 percent of the highest values in the series.
Heat and drought converged into a defining feature of the summer, with land and sea temperatures remaining high and rainfall scarce. Low humidity, especially during heat waves, dried fuels and created a backdrop ripe for wildfires. The combination of dryness and heat intensified fire risk.
Photographs show a reservoir in Avila and other landscapes stressed by drought, underscoring the harsh conditions faced across the country.
The report concludes that the summer of 2022 will likely be the hottest in the historical sequence, though final confirmation awaits the season’s end. It characterizes the period as marked by high temperatures and limited rainfall, punctuated by storms that can bring severe weather, hail, and impactful rainfall while overall drought relief remains minimal.
Researchers emphasize that many dry storms did not deliver sufficient precipitation to reach the ground, sometimes accompanied by strong winds and lightning that can spark fires.
There were tragic events associated with these extreme conditions. In Cullera (Valencia) during a large festival, a young man died and many were hospitalized after stage structures and other parts of the venue collapsed in strong winds, a weather pattern often linked to warm, dry air in the troposphere’s lower and middle layers.
In summary, the article portrays the summer as defined by heat waves and drought, with compound extremes when both occur together.
AEMET notes that heat and drought reinforce one another: high temperatures drive evapotranspiration, reducing soil moisture and water availability for plants. As soils dry, more energy from the sun heats the surface, while moisture presence promotes evaporation and tempers the rise in temperature.
The agency frames the summer of 2022 as a possible foretaste of the mid-21st century climate, suggesting that summers as extreme as 2003 or 2022 may become more frequent even under moderate emissions paths, signaling a new climatic norm that is already taking shape.
This summary reflects the agency’s assessment of ongoing climatic trends and their potential implications for future summers.