Spain faces a marked summer with meteorological drought already declared and a stable seasonal outlook predicting drier and warmer conditions across the country. After a very hot and humid spring, the forecast from the State Meteorological Agency AEMET points to a summer that will be drier than usual and warmer overall for the coming quarter.
During a press conference where AEMET presented its seasonal balance, spokespersons Rubén del Campo and Beatriz Hervella stressed that the summer of 2022 is expected to be highly stable, with July, August and September projected to be drier than average and more pronounced in the interior and northern regions of the peninsula.
On temperature trends, AEMET indicated a high probability that average temperatures will exceed the 1981-2010 reference period, suggesting the quarter’s mean could match or rise above historical norms. In practical terms, the most likely scenario points to the average for these three summer months being at least 0.5ºC higher than normal, with regional variations that could push some areas higher. For example, the Guadalquivir valley might see quarterly averages near 27ºC.
As part of the broader context, the summer comes on the heels of an intense, widespread and early heatwave and a full peninsula already experiencing meteorological drought conditions.
Del Campo noted that spring, spanning March through May, registered an average temperature of 12.8ºC, about 0.7ºC warmer than the long-term reference. This makes 2022 the ninth warmest spring of the 21st century and the twelfth warmest since 1961. He pointed out that March and April were cooler than normal yet May turned notably hot. The spring was marked by late frosts following a cold spell in early April, with April 2 and 3 the coldest days observed in Spain since 1950. It is also notable that Córdoba and Murcia did not reach 10ºC on an April day, a first in the data record.
May produced an extraordinarily hot sequence between the 20th and 22nd, contributing to the warmest May on record for Spain in the past 72 years. Del Campo described the episode as more intense than the notable heat event in 2015.
Through the spring, rainfall had a wet character overall, totaling about 12 percent above normal at roughly 189 liters per square meter. March was particularly wet, followed by a wet April and a very dry May. Yet precipitation distribution varied, with the northern third of the peninsula, west of Castilla y Leon and northeast Castilla-La Mancha experiencing drier conditions.
In contrast, northeastern Catalonia remained humid or very humid, while Andalusia, other parts of Castilla-La Mancha, the Madrid region and Castilla y Leon saw drier tendencies. Conversely, Valencia, Murcia and eastern Andalusia experienced unusually wet conditions.
25% less rain than usual
Looking back at the hydrological year, precipitation through June 14, 2022 totaled about 25 percent less than typical, marking the sixth-driest hydrological year since 1961 and the third in the 21st century for that metric. The March and April rains did reduce the gap but were not enough to fully offset the deficit noted earlier in the winter. The overall trend shows Spain entering meteorological drought in January 2022, with the entire peninsula facing summer with drought conditions in all major basins except Júcar and Segura, which entered drought status on May 31, 2022.
In terms of atmospheric indices, the Standard Precipitation Index indicated drought broadening across most basins, with some exceptions where trends remained flat or improved. The Guadiana, Sur and Guadalquivir basins showed some improvement in SPI, while Júcar remained steady.
In summary, after a humid yet unusually warm spring and a recent heatwave, Spain is positioned to endure meteorological drought through the summer, with forecasts pointing to an average 0.5ºC warming and below-average rainfall for the period.
Researchers and the environment department note that ongoing monitoring will be essential as the season unfolds and that the prevailing pattern could influence water resources, agriculture and energy demand across the country. Fire risk, soil moisture, and reservoir levels are among the elements expected to respond to the combined effect of higher temperatures and reduced rainfall. Ongoing data collection and forecasts will continue to shape planning and emergency preparedness across affected regions.
Editorial notes and updates will be issued as new measurements become available, with AEMET providing periodic briefings to keep the public informed about evolving conditions and regional variations. Attribution for this summary rests with AEMET surveillance and analysis teams. [AEMET attribution]
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