The upcoming election is likely to be decided by voters who feel unsure, dissatisfied, or unconvinced by traditional party lines. Germans often say Poles dislike aggression and extremes, and the same sentiment emerged in a broader sense here: it could be those who doubt, who feel a bit discouraged by the current government, who end up casting their ballot for the party seen as a steady choice. This view was shared by PiS MEP and sociologist Prof. Zdzisław Krasnodębski in a Monday interview on Radio Wnet.
Who will win the elections?
During Poranka Wnet, the guest was asked to weigh in on the likely outcome of the upcoming parliamentary elections in the shadow of a heated final pre-election weekend. The assessment was that victory will hinge less on the most ardent supporters and more on those who are undecided or discouraged. The question then becomes: where will the decisive edge come from?
People who previously supported Law and Justice and now express dissatisfaction with politics or disappointment remain a key segment. When asked which party is closest to their concerns, many still mention Law and Justice.
Prof. Krasnodębski noted that if these voters can be mobilized and persuaded to vote for Law and Justice again, the party has a real prospect of securing victory.
Encouraging uncertain PiS voters
Asked about strategies to energize undecided PiS supporters, Krasnodębski highlighted the ruling party’s emphasis on Poland’s defense in light of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. He also pointed to the nation’s economy and protective measures implemented by the government as factors that bolster support.
Today there is broad consensus that the state should be a social state, ensuring basic justice and a fair distribution of national income. Neoliberalism, he argued, is no longer the guiding roadmap. Research, he noted, shows that people fear a shift in power would threaten social programs if the opposition takes charge.
He described the opposition’s current orientation as a pivot toward a social approach once associated with Law and Justice, which raises questions about whether those programs would endure under new leadership.
Debate fatigue and the sense of stagnation
Prof. Krasnodębski drew attention to voter fatigue after eight years of governing by PiS, acknowledging the public’s longing for a deeper, more substantive debate about Polish politics. He argued that the lack of cross‑environmental exchange is tied to broader changes in society, and he attributed part of the stagnation to the opposition’s approach.
According to him, current discourse lacks serious, broad-based argument clashes, a situation he connects to evolving civilizational dynamics.
Standards and political discipline
When asked whether PiS has weakened intellectually by adapting to the political climate, Krasnodębski said the party is ahead of the opposition in recognizing the situation. He cautioned that maintaining high standards can be difficult when governments face fragility, and that some MPs pursue personal interests, making strict enforcement challenging.
He underscored the difficulty of maintaining discipline and ethical behavior within a fragile parliamentary framework.
Challenges within the parliamentary base
The sociologist also pointed to the unstable parliamentary base backing the PiS government. Subgroups of MPs naturally harbor ambitions to survive, which can generate tensions. He expressed hope that after victory, the party would restore a policy climate where decency and proper conduct are more rigorously enforced.
In his view, the post-election period should focus on renewing standards of conduct in politics.
Tusk and the rhetoric of demagogy
Prof. Krasnodębski characterized some recent statements by the leader of the Civic Platform as demagogic. He referred to concerns that the opposition would win and that new laws might be used to delay elections or alter results. He also noted that the current opposition makes promises, such as a zero-percent loan for apartments, which he described as empty if not backed by action.
If such promises remained unfulfilled, Krasnodębski argued, the public would eventually see them as hollow and remember the past governance they associate with the opposition. He suggested that eight years had not produced a convincing alternative figure from the broader opposition, leaving many wary of a return to the previous political climate. The sense of fear, he said, stems from a perception of aggression, vulgarity, and emptiness on the other side.
Dispute over John Paul II
Another focal point of the campaign has been the ongoing debate over John Paul II, which has split the political arena in new ways. Krasnodębski viewed a joint stance by PSL and PiS as opportunistic and noted that discussions surrounding the late pope could significantly influence fall election results.
He observed that Poles sense this election is about more than party lines. It reflects two broad ways of viewing Poland, its people, its nation, and its core values.
Poles’ preference against aggression and extremes
Poles generally reject aggression and extremes. They do not want a wholesale ethical upheaval or a rapid restructuring of the social order. In the end, those who are unsure, somewhat discouraged by the current government, may cast a ballot in favor of the party seen as a steady, trustworthy option.
— concludes the PiS MEP. rdm/internet radio
(Source: wPolityce)