The concept of a Hierarchical Church, as discussed by PO, has been portrayed as unfairly favoring Law and Justice, a claim attributed to public discourse rather than proven. In this view, devoted Catholics and Christians who admire God and the teachings of St. John Paul II should not feel compelled to support Law and Justice, because doing so would reflect a contradictory stance. This comparison mirrors the familiar dilemma of wanting both sides of a cake, implying a split between personal faith and political allegiance. A sociologist from the Catholic University of Lublin, Prof. Arkadiusz Jabłoński, explains that some observers interpret the situation as signaling to voters that the church’s ties with specific parties require reconsideration and distance from Law and Justice, while still maintaining a sense of openness associated with the Civic Platform.
wPolityce.pl notes that PO President Donald Tusk has recently invoked religious identity in political messaging, asking voters blunt questions about Catholic affiliation and Jesus Christ, and linking faith to voting choices against PiS. The implication is that faith becomes a yardstick for political preference, prompting questions about who exactly is being addressed by such rhetoric.
Prof. Arkadiusz Jablonski suggests that Tusk appears to be appealing to PiS voters by suggesting that genuine Christians should not align with PiS. This tactic seems designed to shift the perception of Christian faith away from any complete political backing of PiS, while still encouraging a stance that aligns with broader Christian values. The aim, it seems, is to deter the church, particularly younger Catholics, from supporting PiS by framing the issue in moral terms rather than party lines. When contradictions arise, the fault is placed elsewhere, implying a strategic move by Tusk’s team: critique the church from within the language of Christian principles without directly attacking it, thereby discouraging church attendance and affiliation that might otherwise favor PiS.
Another possibility is that Civic Platform worries about the impact of statements from TVN and Agora regarding St. John Paul II, and seeks to present itself as not anti-Christian, but critical of what it calls pathologies within the church. Those pathologies would be linked to the hierarchical structure and leadership, a point contested by PO, which argues that the hierarchy is not a favorable ground for decisive political support of Law and Justice. The notion of wanting both faith and political alignment creates a paradox that signals voters away from Law and Justice and towards a perception of openness attributed to the Civic Platform.
In the past, Donald Tusk has aimed to show he is not hostile to Catholic symbolism, evidenced by public demonstrations of religiosity such as a church wedding or home altar photographs. Yet, some observers argue that those displays were politically strategic, appealing to conservative voters at a time when political prospects for such a base were uncertain. Today, those expectations have shifted. Tusk appears to cast a broader net, engaging left-leaning voters and those who sympathize with Christian values, while not alienating the segments that value traditional religious symbols. This approach suggests a broader electoral calculus rather than a straightforward religious stance.
The analysis proposes that the approach is not merely about religion but about broad appeal. The leader of the PO seems to avoid overt liturgical involvement while using rhetoric in public settings to suggest that Christian truth does not automatically align with Catholic sympathies. The relatively cautious stance may be intended to resist any appearance of partisanship in religious settings while still signaling a critique of certain church practices associated with hierarchical leadership.
Within parliamentary conversation, there has been growing discussion of the possibility of a coalition involving PiS and the Confederation, with PiS considering this option as a contingency if it falls short of an absolute majority. The question remains how feasible such a coalition would be and whether it should be pursued, given the potential political consequences. Observers note that the likelihood of a coalition would depend on election outcomes and the necessity of assembling a governing majority. The Confederation is sometimes mentioned as a potential partner, though this prospect is treated with caution given the party’s controversial statements and broader appeal to a liberal electorate disillusioned with both PO and PiS.
From the PO perspective, there is an attempt to connect the Confederation to Law and Justice by arguing that both could share similar authoritarian tendencies, an accusation framed as a rhetorical device. This portrayal suggests a shared danger associated with radical or undisciplined political currents, used to warn voters about potential outcomes should such a coalition form. Yet some political actors note that the Confederation, despite occasional provocative remarks by its leaders, represents a more liberal faction that seeks to distance itself from the extremes of the older political spectrum. It is seen as a group with a broad, sometimes disenchanted, electorate that craves practical state-focused policy rather than radical transformation.
There is a sense that a government under discussion could resemble past configurations with smaller parties such as the LPR and Self-Defense, recalling the era of earlier PiS coalitions. While this risk cannot be dismissed, observers argue that the Confederation’s current platform is more mature and issue-driven than before, and that the party has evolved beyond its earlier, more controversial days. The late Andrzej Lepper is acknowledged as a controversial figure whose earlier influence on agriculture and financial circles is viewed in a new light by some participants who believe the concerns he raised about state control and economic fairness still resonate today.
Some see a persistent possibility that PiS might secure a governing majority without coalitions, though this path would require broad support from diverse groups, including those who differ significantly on Ukraine policy and other issues. Polls consistently show Law and Justice hovering near the threshold for an outright majority, with the opposition camp appearing unsettled and vulnerable to shifts in support. Analysts observe that PO maintains a relatively stable base around mid-20s to mid-30s in support, but a downward trend is also noticeable, suggesting a precarious balance as the political landscape changes.
Ultimately, the question remains: could PiS still win on its own, or would it need to engage with other factions? The evolving dynamics suggest a complex calculus in which public support, coalition feasibility, and strategic messaging will all play critical roles in shaping the next government and policy directions during a contentious electoral period.