Among Poles aged 18 to 30, voting demographics are shifting as the share of young voters slowly shrinks every year. A study conducted by Indicator, in cooperation with the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, shows that the ruling party PiS holds the strongest appeal in this cohort. Interest in Confederation is also notable among the youngest voters.
PiS, KO and Konfederacja lead in youth support
The hypothetical balance of power in the Sejm based solely on those aged 18 to 30 would place PiS at 27 percent, the Civic Coalition at 24.7 percent, and the Confederation at 19.2 percent, according to a political portrait of young Poland published by Wirtualna Polska.
A political portrait of young Poles indicates that 72.2 percent of people in the 18 to 30 age group intend to participate in the October elections.
Although Poles aged 18 to 30 now represent 4.66 million people or 14.9 percent of the adult population, their declared turnout for the next parliamentary elections stands at 72.2 percent. The authors suggest this should motivate a deeper understanding of their views and political attitudes.
Most respondents in this age range do not classify themselves as left or right, with 61.2 percent describing their views as neither left nor right. Many see their life prospects as worsened over the past eight years, particularly in housing. Four years ago, 27.7 percent of young people lived with their parents; today that share has risen to 37.2 percent.
Currently, PiS enjoys the strongest support among this group at 27 percent, followed by the Civic Coalition with 24.7 percent and Konfederacja with 19.2 percent. The remaining positions go to Left Together at 14.1 percent and the still informal PSL-Poland 2050 coalition at 9.6 percent. A small share, 1.7 percent, favors other electoral committees, while 3.7 percent did not answer.
Will the 2019 pattern repeat?
The study notes a similar Ipsos poll conducted four years earlier after the parliamentary elections. In 2019, among young voters, PiS had 26.3 percent support, Civic Coalition 24.3 percent, Konfederacja 19.7 percent, SLD 18.4 percent, and PSL 9.7 percent, aligning with pre-election expectations.
A notable 81.2 percent of the 18 to 30 cohort indicated they would vote for their preferred candidates, while others weighed options between the so called lesser evils and broader dissatisfaction with governing politicians. Motivation for voting ranged from a desire to back a party to a critical stance toward current leaders.
Why might young people abstain?
The study identifies the main reasons for reluctance to vote in the autumn elections. These include a lack of interest in politics (17.2 percent), belief that politicians act mainly in self interest (14.2 percent), and a general mistrust of politicians (13.4 percent). Promises to improve their economic situation (27.4 percent), concerns about Poland’s military security (14.9 percent), and energy and climate policy proposals (14.3 percent) could sway participation.
Youth respondents primarily get political information from social media (29.3 percent), online information services (27.7 percent), and family or friends (19.4 percent). Facebook and Twitter are noted as leading platforms. Television remains a source for 10.6 percent, followed by radio (5 percent), print media (1.8 percent), and church sources (1.1 percent).
Youth opinions on socio economic issues
The survey also sheds light on views about sensitive topics often debated in public spaces, such as abortion law liberalization and Poland’s eurozone accession. A majority of 59.8 percent do not support liberalizing abortion rules, with 63.3 percent of women and 56.7 percent of men against liberalization. A strong 74 percent oppose dismantling the 500 Plus family program, and 85.9 percent express support for higher defense spending.
The study was conducted March 13–30, 2023 using computer-assisted telephone interviews with a national, representative sample of 1200 individuals aged 18–30. These findings reflect the attitudes of young Poles across the country at that time.
Further readings include analyses of PiS performance and its lead over KO in recent polls, and discussions on how regional and party dynamics influence youth voting patterns.
Source notes and tables accompany the full results from INDICATOR, with attribution to the publication outlets that summarized the data.