The voters supporting Law and Justice and the Civic Platform are decisive; there is little movement among them. The most intriguing question concerns the Third Way, said Marek Grabowski, head of the Social Changes studio, during a discussion on Salon Dziennikarski after the latest survey on party support was released.
Jacek Karnowski’s guests – Jolanta Hajdasz, director of the SDP Press Freedom Monitoring Center, Andrzej Rafał Potocki from the weekly Sieci, Marek Formela from Gazeta Gdańska and Marek Grabowski from the Social Changes studio – were asked to comment on research commissioned by wPolityce.pl, a portal linked to the Social Changes studio. The findings suggest that if elections were held next Sunday, the United Right would win.
Currently, 39 percent say they would vote for the United Right, 30 percent for KO, 10 percent for Confederation, 9 percent for the Left, and 8 percent for the Third Way. Nonpartisan local governments register 2 percent support. The indicated turnout is 71 percent. Seemingly, 23 percent of respondents do not intend to participate, and 6 percent have no opinion.
survey / attribution: wPolityce
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Question about the Third Way
Marek Grabowski, head of the Social Changes studio, noted on Salon Dziennikarski that “the research aligns closely with reality.”
He added that the methodology has been used for years. During presidential elections it produced highly accurate results, a fact confirmed by the Jagiellonian University. In some polls, jumps can occur, but rarely do they reach 4 percent in a single step, potentially shifting nearly half the electorate toward one option. Weekly tests are conducted to gauge how firmly the electorate intends to vote. The pattern shows that the voters of Law and Justice and the Civic Platform are decisive: there is little movement among them.
– emphasized Grabowski.
The sociologist also pointed out that the Confederation is hovering around 10 percent, with the Third Way showing signs of activity.
“I understand 7-8 percent. Third Way voters are on the fence. They aren’t simply a reservoir for PO. Some people there strongly dislike Tusk and feel favorable toward PiS,” Grabowski said.
Marek Formela, editor-in-chief of Gazeta Gdańska, added that in the case of the Third Way, “the PSL is the base, and Hołownia’s movement acts as an improvised political entity dependent on the energy of PO and Tusk.”
The real political landscape
When Andrzej Rafał Potocki was asked about the political landscape in Poland, he noted that it is difficult to gauge because “the polls, as the young people say, are crazy.”
A columnist for Sieci recalled the aftermath of the June 4 march, when research funded by media favorable to the opposition showed spikes even before the event.
Considering the average, the Social Changes studio’s results—on which he relies—tend to suggest that if the Third Way is eliminated, PiS would hold an independent majority. If the Third Way is included and the gap between PiS and PO remains wide, the Left and the Third Way could produce a minority government, Potocki explained.
Gierki Owsiak
Jolanta Hajdasz added that Law and Justice emerges as the winner of this election, regardless of the outcome, due to the nature of their campaigning and the pace at which they addressed issues and responded to the opposition’s insults.
She noted that PiS supporters can be proud of how the campaign was conducted and which topics were highlighted, along with the party’s responses to criticisms.
– emphasized the director of CMWP.
When asked about the Great Orchestra of Christmas Charity’s posters on sepsis and Jerzy Owsiak’s involvement in the opposition march on October 1, Hajdasz remarked that it was a shame.
Owsiak portrayed himself as a secular figure from liberal circles, yet it was necessary to demonstrate acts of selflessness and align with those he supports.
– said Jolanta Hajdasz.
The face of the Civic Platform
Marek Formela pointed out that “the highlight of the PO’s capabilities was the march, where, thanks to Prof. Kisielewicz’s calculations, about 300,000 people were counted.”
He also commented on the polls: PiS is around 38-39 percent, a stable, substantive conversation about Poland. It is not merely emotional; it concerns the interests of different social groups, reflected in changes in power. There are solid employment prospects and governance rules, though some issues persist. Morawiecki spoke of them, but flawless governance for eight years is not feasible. The PO’s response has been aggressive and crude, revealing the party’s core weaknesses. This sight is worth considering.
– noted Gazeta Gdańska’s editor-in-chief.
Formela added that Tusk’s march “took advantage of a tsarist style—an approach that could be poisonous for PO by reinforcing the belief that the left can take on social responsibility, potentially regaining voters.”
He also added that voting for the Third Way is difficult in good conscience because it represents two leaders moving in opposite directions.
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wkt
Source: wPolityce [citation]