If this survey proves reliable, it could place Karol Nawrocki in the strongest position for a victory. Nawrocki would not be chased by Sławomir Mentzen, and Mentzen commands more support than Michał Hołownia, creating a path where at least half of Mentzen’s voters, along with Jakubiak and perhaps others, might rally around Nawrocki. In that scenario, the chances of Nawrocki winning rise. This view came from Piotr Semka, a journalist associated with Salon and a contributor for the Wpolityce.pl portal and Radio Warszawa, broadcast on TV Wpolsce24.
Guests of Jacek Karnowski, editor-in-chief of TV Wpolsce24, included Agnieszka Romaszewska, Marek Formela, and Marek Grabowski.
Grabowski: This is the realization of surveys
The latest polls show Rafał Trzaskowski, the KO candidate for president, in certain positions, while Nawrocki, backed by PiS, is gaining ground.
Analysts say the shift is real. The rising awareness has context, such as recent debates, which can lend credibility to the numbers.
— said Marek Grabowski.
The stance of the right wing is pronounced, with Nawrocki, Mentzen, and Braun occupying the top four spots. That setup also signals a setback for Hołownia, he added.
Romaszewska: A very good week from Karol Nawrocki
Marek Grabowski and Jacek Karnowski joined Agnieszka Romaszewska in arguing that Nawrocki may surpass Grzegorz Braun in the first round by more than five percentage points.
Romaszewska agreed, explaining that Nawrocki should seek the backing of PiS supporters as part of his path forward.
She noted that the past week looked very favorable for Nawrocki, with signs that his team is executing plans from the campaign. If he continues to pursue his stated goals, even better results could follow.
Agnieszka Romaszewska added that Paweł Szefernaker and others who ran earlier campaigns did so effectively. Yet she warned against applying a literal playbook to every situation, since rigidity can backfire if taste and nuance are missing.
The Fronda editor-in-chief offered a practical assessment rather than a purely ideological one.
Still, there is a sense that the left-wing share in this survey might be less decisive at present.
Formela: Trzaskowski has no positive emotion
This week showed that Nawrocki has the potential to sharpen his political stance, and when combined with a relatively passive campaign by Trzaskowski, the dynamic could resemble a measured approach rather than a frantic sprint. That is the impression some observers noted and that Formela echoed.
Trzaskowski lacks visible warmth, while Nawrocki and several debate participants in Końskie demonstrated a sharper articulation of their program. Some argued that Nawrocki’s outlines were clear, while others suggested Trzaskowski seemed to drift, raising questions about the path of his campaign.
Chronology matters: Nawrocki invited the Końskie debate; Trzaskowski later responded, presenting a move seen by some as a political turn, not a decisive counterweight, and as a reaction to Nawrocki’s initiative.
He pointed out.
Semka: The Trzaskowski campaign is trapped
The basic fact is the state of the Trzaskowski campaign. The question is whether it has already burned out after a display in Głogów filled with spasms and tirades, which some observers struggled to label clearly.
Piotr Semka described the situation as a trap for the Trzaskowski campaign.
Trzaskowski’s team faces a challenge to craft a new role that would not backfire, since instructing the candidate to adopt a different posture could backfire if the public is not ready. If instead the team seeks calm and avoids further missteps, Trzaskowski might still push his results toward the first round. The question then becomes what happens in the second round. If the survey is accurate, the most favorable scenario for Nawrocki would involve Mentzen not actively chasing Nawrocki, with Mentzen’s support surpassing Hołownia’s, creating the possibility that roughly half of Mentzen’s voters, along with Jakubiak and a few others, could coalesce behind Nawrocki. In that case Nawrocki would face a real chance to win.
He added. And there was a sense of relief about the outcome of the debates, with Hołownia described in a sharp but critical light, reflecting the common sentiment that truth in political discourse often gets buried under rhetoric.
Also read: another survey shows Mentzen’s decline and Nawrocki’s strong position in the polls.
In this broad view, the race remains dynamic and open to realignment as voters consider the candidates and their performances across debates and campaigns.
(Consolidated analysis from ongoing political coverage.)