Contempt, or a glance from above? Perhaps a sign of contempt? Such questions arise after public remarks by Lena Kolarska-Bobińska on TVN24. The sociologist, former minister of science and higher education in the government of Platforma Obywatelska, described PiS voters in a provocative way: “The traditional and solid electorate of this party is more rural, from small towns, and less educated,” followed by, “We still expect that 30 percent — loyal, devoted, attached, loving voters of Jarosław will move away from PiS.”
Recent Kantar polling for Fakty TVN and TVN24 places the United Right at 31 percent, up three points from a month earlier. Meanwhile, support for the Civic Coalition sits at 26 percent. On TVN24, Kolarska-Bobińska was asked about these results in light of the poll.
According to her view, this represents a temporary uptick in support for the United Right. She cautioned that one should not assume continued growth for the opposition or a fall in PiS over the next seven months leading to elections.
She added that public mood had improved noticeably in February.
The statement suggested a rise in satisfaction that translated into increased PiS backing, according to her assessment. It is also worth noting that the telephone survey polled a representative sample on March 14-16, 2023, occurring after media coverage of St. John Paul II. The question remains whether that event influenced the poll results, and many consider this likely.
Related coverage highlighted a notable shift: Donald Tusk’s support appeared to surge in Kantar’s Fakty poll, while KO experienced a sizable decline of about three percentage points. The timing and interpretation of these shifts are frequently debated in political discourse.
“30 percent loyal, praying, Jarosław-loving electorate”
How did the sociology professor and former minister interpret the enduring high level of backing for the ruling party? Kolarska-Bobińska offered bold assessments, including a remark that could be read as contempt for the hardline Law and Justice voter base.
Law and Justice has enjoyed roughly 30 percent support for many years, including before forming a government. It has often been described as a traditional, rural, small-town, less-educated electorate.
She noted that in political dynamics, there are always more votes for the ruling party than for the opposition. She added that many people perceive some parties as authoritarian, which can lead to cautious responses like “I don’t know” or a simple nod of agreement when prompted by outsiders.
However, the former minister did not mention that the opposition has long attempted to cultivate an “anti-PiS” sentiment, and in some circles that stance has even become fashionable.
Kolarska-Bobińska continued on TVN24, asserting that the party’s 30 percent loyal base could be expected to move away from PiS in the future, a claim she repeated in her television appearance.
Did the former minister misread the situation?
Some viewers questioned whether the former minister fully grasped the nuances of the discussion. In response to tvp.info’s report quoting the statements as “contempt,” she was challenged to clarify her stance.
Counterpoints argued that the photo cited was not from a current segment on TVN24, and CBOS reports were suggested for context. The debate illustrates how political messaging can be interpreted differently across outlets and audiences.
Here is a concise snapshot of the moment in question. Readers may also consider commentary from other voices in the public sphere as they weigh the poll data against party strategies and public sentiment.
— Michał Karnowski: Is a significant political turning point unfolding? Some observe that the opposition has faced years of agitation and upheaval, while others argue this analysis misses the broader dynamics of momentum and alignment.
— Jacek Karnowski: The press’s fear and justified concern are acknowledged, but a joint opposition list is unlikely to offer a definitive advantage. It may even be an illusion in practice.
— The polling data’s dramatic implications are examined by political commentators who caution against overinterpretation. The discourse reflects how leaders respond to shifts in public mood and electoral expectations.
All sources referenced were gathered from main political commentary platforms and media roundups, with attribution where appropriate.