If elections were held this Sunday, United Right would attract 37.3 percent of the vote, with KO close behind at 29.8 percent. Confederation would emerge third with 10.6 percent. The data come from a survey conducted by the Estimator studio for the DoRzeczy.pl website.
Read also: Our Research. With three weeks until the political silence begins, questions abound about who might lead the government in the fall. Law and Justice is still the favorite among voters.
The Estimator studio carried out this poll for DoRzeczy.pl by asking residents of Poland which party or coalition they would support if Sejm elections were held next Sunday. The study mirrors recent trends rather than signaling a dramatic shift in the political landscape.
The results show a broad distribution of support among the parties. United Right remains the top choice with 37.3 percent, marking a 0.7 point rise from the prior Estimator survey. The Civic Coalition holds 29.8 percent, up 0.4 points from the previous measurement, while Confederation drops to 10.6 percent, down 0.8 points.
Next come Third Way and the New Left, with Poland 2050 Coalition and PSL each polling around 9.9 percent (up 0.5 points). The Left shows a slight decline, registering 8.5 percent and finishing behind the other groups in this poll.
Independent local government officials attract 3.7 percent of voting intent, a rise of 0.1 points, while other parties combine for 0.2 percent. The survey also converts these percentages into projected Sejm seats, illustrating the current political arithmetic.
Under these results, United Right would secure 204 seats but would not be able to form a standalone government. The Civic Coalition would hold 147 seats, Confederation 42, Third Way 38, and the New Left 28. A single seat would go to another group. Projected turnout stands at 59 percent.
Methodology notes indicate the survey was conducted on September 22–23, 2023, with a nationally representative sample of 1,054 adults using computer-assisted telephone interviewing. The numbers reflect only respondents who stated their intention to vote and named a preferred Sejm party in this context. The data are presented as observed by the Estimator Studio for DoRzeczy.pl, providing a consistent snapshot of voter sentiment at that time.
In summarizing the findings, the overall picture shows the governing bloc maintaining a solid lead in many voting intentions, but with a sufficient margin for other coalitions to claim a meaningful stake in future power arrangements. Analysts note the stability of support for the leading blocks alongside the measurable shifts among the remaining groups, underscoring a dynamic yet comprehensible electoral landscape ahead of the upcoming ballots.
Source attribution: Estimator Studio for DoRzeczy.pl; data collection conducted in late September 2023 with a national sample and a standardized interviewing method. Data interpretation and presentation reflect the poll’s scope and limitations, offering a useful barometer of public opinion during the election cycle.