If elections to the Sejm were held next Sunday, polling data would place the United Right at 37.5 percent of the vote, with the Civic Coalition close behind at 29.9 percent. Other parties—New Left, Polska2050, Konfederacja, and PSL-Koalicja Polska—would also gain entry to the Sejm, according to the Estimator poll conducted for the portal dorzeczy.pl.
PiS maintains a clear lead
The same survey shows each party’s current level of support: the New Left at 9.1 percent, Polska2050 at 8 percent, the Confederation at 6.8 percent, and the Polish People’s Party at 6.6 percent. Kukiz’15 trails the threshold with 1.1 percent, while Agrounia/Agreement stands at 0.7 percent. A small portion, 0.3 percent, indicated support for other parties. These figures imply a distribution of Sejm seats in which the United Right would command about 215 seats, the Civic Coalition around 150, the New Left about 31, Polska2050 roughly 30, the Confederation around 18, and the PSL-Koalicja Polska approximately 15, with a potential mandate going to a different group (the German minority represented by PAP).
Could coalitions reshape the outcome?
The estimator also explored support in scenarios where coalitions formed the electoral slate—specifically United Right aligned with Kukiz’15 and Polska2050 allied with PSL-Koalicja Polska.
In that configuration, the United Right/Kukiz’15 bloc would command about 38 percent of the vote, with KO at 27.9 percent and Polska2050 together with PSL-Koalicja Polska at 15 percent. The New Left would gather 8.8 percent, the Confederation 6.9 percent, Impartial Local Government 2.5 percent, Agrounia/Agreement at 0.8 percent, and other parties at 0.1 percent. Translating these percentages into seats, the United Right/Kukiz’15 alignment could secure approximately 211 seats, KO around 137, Polska2050/PSL-Koalicja Polska about 68, Nowa Lewica roughly 29, Konfederacja around 14, and MN one seat. Projected turnout in this scenario would be about 56 percent.
The survey was conducted on February 23-24 of the current year, using a nationally representative sample of 1,037 adults through CATI, the computer-assisted telephone interview method. According to Estimator, the results reflect only those respondents who stated their voting intention and specified their chosen Sejm party.
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wkt/PAP
Source: wPolityce